8-6 End of Day: Corn and Beans Break as Wheat Rallies
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 388.75 | -2 |
| DEC ’24 | 405.25 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 448.25 | -1.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1026.75 | -14 |
| JAN ’25 | 1043.25 | -13.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1064.5 | -8.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 543.25 | 3.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 566.5 | 3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 604.25 | 2.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 561.5 | 1.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 578.25 | 1.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 604 | 4.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 592.5 | 5 |
| DEC ’24 | 612.25 | 4 |
| SEP ’25 | 650 | 3.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5314.25 | 96.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 72.32 | 0.12 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2411.7 | -10.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Despite the corn market’s early session recovery, sellers returned as outside markets stabilized. Carryover weakness from the soybean market, historically high crop ratings, and producers selling old crop inventories contributed to the downturn.
- With more stable outside markets, today’s break in the soybean market negated what gains were made in yesterday’s session, as traders refocused on a benign weather pattern and improved crop ratings.
- The wheat complex shrugged off the negativity in the corn and soybean markets and posted gains across all three classes, as a recovery in Matif wheat, and declining estimates of Europe’s wheat crop lent support.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6-10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center. Scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- With more stability in the markets, sellers returned to the corn market during the day session, pressured by historically strong crop ratings, producer selling of old crop bushels, and weakness in the soybean complex.
- The USDA released weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon. This year’s corn crop was rated 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Historically, the rating is above average and bringing forecasts of above trendline yields, and the potential for increased supply is a limiting factor for the corn market.
- Weather forecasts are still non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures and rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but cooler temperature should ease some plant stress.
- Producer selling may be increasing as old crop corn needs to be priced and basis contracts move closer to their pricing deadlines. With 7% of the corn crop in dent stage, southern harvest may be beginning soon, and bringing fresh supplies to the market.
- In the short term, the corn market is moving in a range bound pattern. December corn has support at 398 and resistance at 408. The market is consolidating within this range.
Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower wiping out all of yesterday’s gains as the equity markets corrected and trade shifted focus back to the crop conditions and upcoming weather. While crop ratings showed an improvement in soybean conditions, temperatures may start to increase in the 2-week forecast. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.
- Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report, showing the soybean crop’s good to excellent ratings improving 1 point to 68%. Iowa had the best rating at 76%, followed by Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming versus 77% last week.
- The 7-day forecast doesn’t hold anything too concerning, with normal temperatures and rain expected. A La Nina pattern had previously been expected to cause hot and dry conditions this summer, but so far that has not been the case and has affected grain prices negatively.
- Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 261k tons of soybeans were inspected for export, which was on the lighter side. This compares to 409k tons last week and 291k tons a year ago. Total inspections for 23/24 are down 15% from the previous year. China made two purchases of new crop US soybeans last week, but exports will need to remain strong to be supportive.
Above: Since the end of July, the soybean market has been rangebound between 1005 and 1035. A close below 1008 could put the market at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985. While a close above the initial resistance area of 1035 – 1045 could put prices on track toward 1130 – 1170, though further resistance may be encountered near 1082.
Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat posted gains in all three classes, despite lower closes for corn and soybeans and a recovering US Dollar Index. Outside market influences potentially offered support – Matif wheat futures recovered from yesterday’s losses, and the US stock market is also higher after the major selloff yesterday.
- Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvest was 88% complete versus 85% last year and 86% on average. Additionally, 74% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and well above the 41% rating a year ago. Furthermore, 97% of spring wheat is headed, versus 99% on average. Harvest at 6% complete, is a little behind last year’s 8% and the average of 10%.
- Good rainfall benefited Argentina’s central crop area this weekend. Better rains are also expected in Argentina’s wheat growing areas in the south and east in early September. Argentina needs the rain; according to the Rosario Exchange, they experienced the driest July in nearly 60 years.
- Argus has estimated that the French soft wheat crop yields will be 19% below average at 5.93 mt per hectare. Additionally, they projected French wheat production at 15.2 mmt – if accurate this would be a 41-year low.
- According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, the European Union’s 24/25 grain production is expected to decline relative to last year. A smaller planted area and lower yields are cited as the reasons for the decline. Wheat production in particular is expected at 127.4 mmt, which is below the USDA’s official estimate of 130 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.
Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
