All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	390.75	4.25
DEC ’24	407	3.75
DEC ’25	449.5	1.25

Soybeans
NOV ’24	1040.75	13.5
JAN ’25	1057	13
NOV ’25	1073.25	4.75

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	539.5	0.5
DEC ’24	563.25	1
JUL ’25	601.5	3.5

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	560.25	0.5
DEC ’24	576.75	0.5
JUL ’25	599.75	2

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	587.5	-7.5
DEC ’24	608.25	-6.25
SEP ’25	646.5	-8.75

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5231.5	-144.5

Crude Oil
OCT ’24	72.33	-0.26

Gold
OCT ’24	2425.6	-21.7

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market settled higher for the second day in a row as support held near contract lows, providing a base for more short covering that was likely triggered by another day of sharply lower equity markets.
November soybean settled near the top of their 26 ½ cent trading range following a dramatic reversal from overnight lows, that saw the whole soy complex lower. Potential short covering by managed funds helped drive the price action in response to lower outside markets.
The wheat complex closed mixed on the day as the Chicago and KC contracts staged a recovery with help from a lower US dollar, while the Minneapolis contracts settled in the red, with a forecast for rain contributing to the weakness.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

With a day of aggressive selling in outside markets, corn futures were able to battle off early session lows to finish higher on the day. The stronger technical close could see some additional follow-through short covering going into tomorrow’s session.
With equity markets seeing strong selling, risk off trade was hitting other assets that were over-valued or high priced. Grain markets are on the opposite side of that picture but may have seen some short covering in order for firms to raise funds to cover margin calls in other markets.
Weekly export inspections for corn were supportive at 47.8 mb (1.213 mmt). The drop in corn prices has kept the US competitive in the export market, bringing some contra-seasonal strength in exports. The current marketing year export pace is in line to reach USDA targets as the marketing year closes at the end of the month.
The USDA will release crop ratings later this afternoon. The market is expecting a 1% drop in corn good to excellent ratings to 67%. Corn ratings typically slide this time of year as the crop grows more mature.
Weather forecasts are still non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for most of the corn belt.

Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 23,453 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 295,096 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop. While weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE, which could be lower given the slow planting pace last spring. Therefore, any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day significantly higher after a day of mixed trade which initially saw the soy complex lower at the start of the day after a huge sell-off in the equity markets that also affected crude oil prices. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil remained lower along with crude.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is currently set to post a loss of over 1,000 points on the day, triggered by a disappointing jobs report on Friday and the Japanese Nikkei Index losing over 12% in a single day this weekend. The selloff in equities today primarily affected livestock and crude oil prices, and it was slightly surprising to see a higher close in both corn and soybeans. It is possible that hedge fund money was exiting the stock market and entering the oversold grain market to cover short positions and book profits.
Weather forecasts are mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts. Funds continued selling as the weather has left crop conditions in good shape, but they are near record short and may be hesitant to get much more aggressive with new shorts.

Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 14,932 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 178,591 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

After trading in the red for most of the session, wheat futures eked out a positive close in both the Chicago and Kansas City contracts. However, Minneapolis closed lower alongside Matif wheat futures. Rain on the radar for Minnesota and the Dakotas today may account for the relative weakness of spring wheat.
Most outside markets took a risk off posture today due to concerns about both the US and the world economy. The DJIA at the time of writing is down over 1000 points, along with energies and precious metals which are trading lower, while livestock closed sharply lower. On a bullish note, the US Dollar Index was also down hard, at one point hitting the lowest level since January, and may have offered some support to the grain complex.
Export inspections for wheat totaled 16.2 mb, bringing 24/25 total wheat inspections to 130 mb, up 16% from last year. However, inspections are slightly behind the USDA’s estimated pace. The USDA estimates exports for 24/25 at 825 mb, which would represent a 17% year over year increase.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $221 per mt FOB. That is a $1 increase from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon said that last week Russia exported 1.06 mmt of grain, with 930K mt of that being wheat. The total exports were above last week’s total of 1.0 mmt.
According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, 24/25 grain exports are up over 40% year over year. As of August 5, exports for the 24/25 season totaled 3.7 mmt compared to 2.6 mmt a year ago. Of that total, wheat accounted for 1.5 mmt, corn at 1.6 mmt, and barley at 533K mt.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,432 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 77,616 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 674 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 40,192 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 30. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 926 contracts between July 24 – 30, bringing their total position to a net short 24,932 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather