8-4 End of Day: Soybeans Find Footing, Corn Slips to New Lows Monday
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 387 | -2.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 407 | -3.75 |
| DEC ’26 | 448 | -2.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’25 | 994.5 | 5.25 |
| JAN ’26 | 1013 | 5.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1051.25 | 5.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 516.75 | 0 |
| DEC ’25 | 537 | 0 |
| JUL ’26 | 575.75 | 0.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 517 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 537.5 | -1 |
| JUL ’26 | 579 | -0.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.73 | 0.0075 |
| DEC ’25 | 5.96 | -0.0075 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.4825 | 0.015 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6348.5 | 84 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’25 | 65.19 | -1.01 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3403.6 | 30.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher for the first time in seven sessions, with November finding technical support near $9.85. The rebound appeared chart-driven, as fundamental pressures from moderate weather and weak export demand persist.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended the session mixed, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger Paris wheat futures, though gains were limited by generally favorable global weather and a lack of fresh bullish news.
- To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures pushed to new contract lows to start the week, with December settling at $4.07. Prices have now declined in 11 of the past 12 Monday sessions, pressured by favorable weather and the potential for a large harvest.
- Weekly export inspections totaled 1.208 MMT (47.5 mb), in line with expectations. Inspections remain 28% ahead of last year, but nearly 8.0 MMT in outstanding sales must be shipped before the August 30 marketing year end.
- Brazil corn harvest made good progress over the week as weather improved. In the key center-southern regions of Brazil, harvest is 81% complete, up 13% from last week. This is still trending behind last year’s 95% complete levels as a slow start to harvest due to weather and the large production has limited the pace.
- USDA crop ratings, due Monday afternoon, are expected to show corn rated 73% good/excellent, steady with last week. Ratings often decline this time of year as the crop matures.
- Managed funds increased short positions in corn by 3,820 contracts last week, bringing the total net short to 181,185 contracts. Favorable U.S. weather and large crop expectations continue to drive bearish sentiment.
Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.
Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,820 contracts between July 22- July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 181,185 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher for the first time in seven days with the November contract seeming to find support at the $9.85 level. Today’s move felt more technical than anything as weather forecasts have stayed moderate and export demand remains weak. Soybean meal led the complex higher while soybean oil was mostly lower.
- June U.S. soybean crush totaled 197.1 million bushels—up 7.4% from a year ago but down from May’s 203.7 mb. Robust crush activity has added to global soybean meal supplies, even as soybean oil demand remains firm.
- China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 25,445 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 36,311 contracts. They bought 11,274 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 66,600 contracts and sold 3,615 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,358 contracts.
Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.
Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,445 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 36,311 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat finished the session with a mixed close. On the positive side, today’s lower U.S. Dollar Index and higher finish for Paris wheat futures were supportive. But pitted against mostly favorable global weather and a lack of fresh friendly news, wheat did not have much reason to move strongly in either direction today.
- Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 22 million bushels, lifting 2025/26 marketing year totals to 144 mb—up 9% from a year ago and running ahead of USDA’s projected pace of 850 mb.
- The Ukrainian grain harvest has reached 15.5 mmt so far. This is 39% behind last year’s 25.3 mmt collected at this time. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.4 mmt, compared to 19.4 mmt a year ago.
- According to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds added just over 13,000 contracts to their net short position in Chicago wheat. That is an increase of about 25.5% in only one week, bringing the total number of contracts to just over 65,000. Additionally, they added over 3,000 contracts to their net short in Kansas City wheat, now sitting over 47,000 contracts in total.
- Heavy rainfall is forecast for the Canadian Prairies this week, likely benefiting wheat conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, though Manitoba may still face suboptimal soil moisture levels.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Sell JUL ’26 Cash
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 Puts:
550 @ ~ 29c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.
Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 13,283 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 65,324 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,321 contracts between July 22– July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 47,280 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 29. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,433 contracts between July 22 – July 29, bringing their total position to a net short 17,721 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
