8-30 End of Day: Markets Close Out the Week on a Strong Note
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 378 | 6.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 401 | 5 |
| DEC ’25 | 438.75 | 3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1000 | 7.5 |
| JAN ’25 | 1017 | 8.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1047.25 | 7.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 532.75 | 7.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 551.5 | 2.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 589.75 | 4 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 552.5 | 7 |
| DEC ’24 | 565.25 | 4.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 587.75 | 4 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 573.75 | 11.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 600.5 | 10 |
| SEP ’25 | 650.25 | 9 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5621.5 | 11.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 73.54 | -2.37 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2513.5 | -23.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- For the first time since late July the corn market closed the week in positive territory, with December corn posting a bullish reversal on the weekly chart. Improved demand, First Notice Day, and month-end likely triggered short-covering.
- Volatile, two-sided trade dominated the soybean market as traders sought to cover short positions on an improved demand outlook, following reports of additional flash sales of soybeans and soybean meal ahead of month-end and the three-day Labor Day weekend. Additional support came from soybean meal which also closed in the green, but well off its highs after encountering resistance at the 50-day moving average. While soybean oil settled lower on the day, pressured by lower crude oil.
- After trading lower and finding support below the market, all three wheat classes closed higher on the day for the fourth consecutive day, led by the Minneapolis contracts. The day’s higher prices were supported by continued quality concerns regarding the spring wheat crop and strength in Matif wheat.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market finished the week strong as the combination of improved demand, and First Notice Day brought short covering into the corn market. December corn futures finished the week higher for the first time in five weeks gaining 10 cents on the week.
- This week posted an improved technical picture for the corn market with Dec. futures bouncing off a double bottom at 385, and finishing the week with a weekly reversal, trading past last week’s high. The key will be follow-through price action next week to confirm a possible trend change in corn futures.
- Export sales for corn have improved over the past couple of weeks as lower prices have stimulated some demand. This week’s export sales report for the 24/25 marketing year was above expectations at nearly 1.5 mmt and has helped catch up with the projected export sales pace. New crop sales at a cumulative 9.4 mmt, as of Aug. 22 covered 16.1% of USDA’s 24/25 export forecast. Which is a three-year high for the date.
- Argentina producers are looking to reduce their total corn area for the 24/25 crop by 17.1% versus last year, due to concerns regarding disease and infestation with leafhoppers, which cut yield potential in their 23/24 corn crop.
Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade that saw prices as much as 15 cents higher at the open, turning negative, and then working higher throughout the day. Funds were likely taking profits at the end of the week and month, but good export sales and a decline in crop ratings have added to the bullish fundamental story. Soybean meal was higher today while soybean oil was slightly lower.
- In more supportive news, this morning, the USDA reported a private export sale totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 24/25 marketing year and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Colombia for the 24/25 marketing year.
- Today was First Notice Day for the September contracts and there were only 6 deliveries for soybeans, 35 deliveries for soybean oil, and zero versus meal. Today’s move higher saw November beans close right at 1000 which was key, but prices will need to hold these levels next week.
- For the week, November soybeans gained 27 cents to end at 1000 while March soybeans gained 25 ½ cents to settle at 1031 ¾. December soybean meal gained $8.50 on the week to $313.00, while December soybean oil gained 1.63 cents to 42.01 cents.
- In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. While planting for the next season is set to begin in September, many areas remain too dry, which could delay planting until mid-September when rains are expected.
Above: The recent rally has brought November soybeans into the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. A close above this range could set the market up for a rally toward the July high of 1082 ¼. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The wheat complex closed higher across all three classes for the fourth consecutive day, after initially trading lower and rallying off support. Minneapolis contracts led the day’s gains, likely driven by ongoing quality concerns regarding the spring wheat crop. Matif wheat, which notched its fifth consecutive higher close, also provided support to the US wheat market.
- It’s been reported that the spring wheat crop in North Dakota continues to battle with quality issues including vomitoxin, sprouting, and low falling numbers due to excessive rain.
- The Australian wheat crop looks to be good shape with reports of surveyed analysts estimating this year’s crop to come in around 31.1 mmt, compared to last year’s 26 mmt and the Australian Ag Minister’s June estimate of 29 mmt. The higher estimate may have added some overhead resistance to prices.
- EU grain production for the 24/25 season is now projected to come in at 264.5 mmt by the European Commission. Of this total, 116.1 mmt are expected to be soft wheat, which is down from the Commission’s July estimate of 120.8 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 590 – 610 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The market’s close above the 50-day moving average set it up for a potential challenge of the 560 – 570 resistance area, and a rally towards 590 – 595. Should prices reverse and close back below the 50-day moving average, they could again find support near 514, with further support around 500 and 488.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found near 565 and again between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average and again in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.
Other Charts / Weather
5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
