8-29 End of Day: Markets Close Strong as First Notice Day and Month End Nears
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 371.75 | 6.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 396 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 435.5 | 2.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 992.5 | 15.5 |
| JAN ’25 | 1008.75 | 14.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1040 | 10.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 525 | 10.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 548.75 | 7.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 585.75 | 6.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 545.5 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 560.5 | 4.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 583.75 | 5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 562.5 | 8 |
| DEC ’24 | 590.5 | 6.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 641.25 | 2.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5626 | 15.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 75.96 | 1.44 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2535.5 | 21.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Sellers took a back seat in the corn market today as traders covered short positions, spurred by higher wheat and soybean prices, as well as strong export sales, ahead of month-end and tomorrow’s First Notice Day in the September contracts.
- Bolstered by better than expected weekly export sales and higher soybean meal and oil prices, November soybeans printed their highest close in nearly three weeks and closed above the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-July.
- Supported by strong crude oil prices and higher palm oil, potential short covering in soybean oil kicked in once above Monday’s high, driving it to its highest level since late July. While soybean meal also rallied, upward momentum was more restrained, as prices retreated after hitting overhead resistance.
- The wheat complex held support near the overnight lows and rallied back through the day, supported by solid export sales, a continued rally in Matif wheat, and potential short covering as month-end draws near. Today marked the third consecutively higher close across all three classes of US wheat.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Drought Monitor courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Buyers returned to the corn market on Thursday as prices pushed to their highest close in over a week. The combination of strength in other grains, First Notice Day on the September contract, and a solid week of new crop export sales triggered a short covering rally as the market closes in on the end of the marketing year and the 3-day Labor Day weekend.
- The USDA released weekly export sales this morning. Old crop sales were light as the marketing year winds down at 90.6 mb (15,300 mt), but new crop sales were just above the range of expectations at 58.8 mb (1.494 mmt).
- Though weather has moved to the back burner for this time of year in the corn market, the current 6 – 14 day window is showing a drier period across the Corn Belt. Even with temperatures cooling down, the trade is still leaning to a large corn crop, but the recent heat and dryness may have trimmed some of the top end off the yields.
- Funds are estimated to still be short about 265,000 corn contracts. With the 3-day weekend, the market is likely seeing some short covering into that window as well as the end of the marketing year on August 30. The 24/25 marketing year begins on September 1.
Above: Since mid-August prices have largely been rangebound between 400 and 390. A close above the 400 – 414 resistance area could set prices up to rally toward the 430 area. Should they break and close below 385 support, they may be at risk of sliding towards the 372 support level.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher with the November contract closing above the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-July. The most recent weather forecast shows hot and dry conditions in the 8-14 day forecast, which could cause soybeans to see a decline in yields. First Notice Day is also tomorrow which may be impacting prices. Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean oil led the way with gains of over 3%.
- Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans. The USDA reported net cancellations of 5.3 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 but an increase of 96.1 mb for 24/25 which was above the range of trade analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 19.9 mb were also above the 19.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Germany, and China.
- Yesterday, funds were estimated to have sold approximately 4,000 soybean contracts. Funds currently hold an estimated net short position of about 187,000 soybean contracts, 84,000 soybean oil, and are net even meal. Funds are likely holding a record short position in soybeans at the moment.
- In South America, soybean plantings are about to begin, but conditions are currently dry so there will likely be delays until moisture improves. Mato Grosso and other key soybean producing states have received very little rain over the past few months.
Above: Since the front month continuous chart rolled to the November contract on August 15, soybean futures have largely traded sideways. A breakout above 992 could push prices towards the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three US wheat classes rebuffed early weakness to finish the session in positive territory. Support came from rallying corn and soybeans and a third consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Today’s strength also comes despite another day higher in the US Dollar Index. With First Notice Day tomorrow for September grain contracts, as well as it being the end of the month, it is possible that today’s rally was driven by managed funds squaring positions.
- The USDA showed in its weekly Export Sales report an increase of 19.6 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25 for the week ending August 22, but a decrease of 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week of 21.2 mb exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for the 24/25 marketing year are up 33% from last year at 366 mb, which is well above the USDA’s estimated pace.
- According to the USDA as of August 27, approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week. Yields remain favorable in North Dakota and Minnesota, with the national harvest now over 50% complete. Additionally, drought conditions in winter wheat areas have increased by 2% from last week to 47%, which could impact the establishment of the soon to be planted winter wheat crop.
- The German grain harvest, according to preliminary government data, is expected to fall 9% year over year due to bad weather. Total grain production this year is estimated at 34.5 mmt, which is below private German farmer’s group DBV’s estimate of 39.3 mmt. Wheat specifically is expected to produce 18.5 mmt, which would be down 15% from a year ago.
- Argus Media is estimating the French soft wheat harvest will total 25.1 mmt, which would be a 27% decline from last year if realized. Additionally, they are projecting that French soft wheat exports outside the European Union will fall 60% to just 4.1 mmt, the lowest total since 2001/2002. This would also result in a loss of about $1.6 billion in export revenue for France.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 590 – 610 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The support area below the market between 524 and 514 ¼ held with Dec ’24 posting a bullish key reversal on August 27. Should prices continue higher toward the 560 – 570 area, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average before then. A break below 514 ¼ could set the market up for a further decline towards 500 and 488.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found near 565 and again between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average and again in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.
Other Charts / Weather
5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
