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8-28 Opening Update: Grains Mostly Unchanged to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn is trading quietly on either side of unchanged with the September contract up 3/4 cent at $3.83-1/4 while December is unchanged at $4.06.
  • The ProFarmer tour brought up disease in the crop multiple times, and farmers who are finding corn rust are reporting heavy cases of it. This could cut effected yields by 20-40%.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,600k tons with an average guess of 1,917k. This would compare to 2,833k last week and 1,509k a year ago at this time.

Corn Futures Show Signs of Life: With the front-month roll from September to December, corn has shown renewed strength. Prices rallied to close last week above the 50-day moving average, a constructive signal. Early this week, corn filled the post–July 4th gap near 413, with the next upside target seen at the gap near 430. On the downside, the 50-day average serves as initial support, while a break could expose the gap below 400.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower with the September contract down 3/4 cent at $10.26-1/2 while November is unchanged at $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal is up $0.30 to $284.60 and October soybean oil is down 0.05 cents at $52.67 cents.
  • So far, China has made no new crop soybean purchases from the US, sourcing mainly from Brazil. As a result, basis in various parts of North Dakota that export through the PNW have seen basis fall between 1.50 and 1.80 under futures.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 400k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 733k. This would compare with 1,137k last week and 2,403k a year ago.

Soybeans Eye Spring Highs: Soybean futures surged in early August after USDA cut 2025 harvested area by 2.5 million acres. Prices broke through heavy resistance and key moving averages around 10.30, which now act as support on pullbacks. On the upside, the next major resistance is at the spring highs near 10.80, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past year.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with September Chicago wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.00-3/4 while September KC wheat is unchanged at $4.85-1/2. Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher.
  • The Canadian wheat crop for 25/26 was seen rising to 35.5 mmt from previous estimates of 34.2 mmt according to Bloomberg. Canola production is seen 4.6% higher.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 400k and 700k tons with an average estimate of 533k tons. This would compare to 482k last week and 498k a year ago at this time.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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