After a weaker start, the grain complex has turned higher by midday. With little fresh news to drive the market, this rally appears to be largely technical in nature.
According to the USDA, 65% of the corn crop is rated 65% good to excellent, down 2% from last week. In addition, 84% of the crop is in the dough stage, 46% is dented, and 11% is mature.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that Argentina is expected to reduce corn planting by 21% due to the leaf hopper plague that affected last year’s crop. Approximately 4.9 million acres may be shifted to soybean cultivation.
In general, the downtrend for grains remains intact. December corn in particular did close below 390 yesterday. With a lot of corn still in farmers’ hands, any rallies are likely to be sold, which may limit upside price movement.
The USDA reported in its weekly crop progress report that 67% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Additionally, 89% of the crop is setting pods, while 6% of the crop is dropping leaves.
The forecast for the next seven days has put a little more rain into the eastern corn belt compared to previous forecasts, which should help with pod fill and to keep yield prospects high.
After a strong move higher over the past few sessions, crude oil is taking a breather today, and is down over a dollar per barrel at the time of writing. This is keeping pressure on soybean oil, which is currently trading near unchanged, despite the gains in the rest of the grain complex.
The USDA reports that 69% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, down from 73% last week. Additionally, 51% of the crop has been harvested, compared to 50% at this time last year and the 53% average.
The US Dollar index is slightly lower this morning, offering some support to grains. However, it appears to be consolidating at these lower levels, and a potential recovery could pressure wheat.
Paris milling wheat futures have stopped the bleeding after four consecutive lower closes, with contracts trading higher this morning, lending some support to the U.S. wheat market.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
