8-27 End of Day: Corn and Wheat See a Turnaround Tuesday, While Soybeans Build on Monday’s Strength
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 367.25 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 392.75 | 6.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 434.25 | 4.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 986.5 | 5.75 |
| JAN ’25 | 1003.5 | 5.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1034.5 | 4.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 508.25 | 10.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 535.5 | 10.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 573 | 9.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 538.75 | 13.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 546.75 | 9.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 568.75 | 8.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 546.25 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 574.25 | 6.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 631.25 | 4 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5646.25 | 9.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 75.65 | -1.77 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2535.9 | 4.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Buyers returned to the corn market, supported by short covering and strong buying in the wheat market. Spot month September, while still higher on the day, remained under pressure likely due to continued producer pricing ahead of First Notice Day on Friday.
- The spike in temperatures and drop in crop ratings likely drove traders to cover some short positions in the soybean market as concerns rise that the hot temperatures may prevent the soybean crop from reaching its full yield potential.
- The rally in soybean meal was largely offset by today’s drop in soybean oil, which was pressured by steep declines in crude oil resulting in pot Board crush margins declining 2 ¼ cents.
- After closing lower for four consecutive days, the wheat complex found support and closed higher across the board, with the Chicago contracts staging bullish key reversals. With little fresh news in the market, today’s rally was likely technical, driven by traders covering short positions in oversold conditions. Additional support came from neighboring corn and soybeans, as well as higher Matif wheat.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the months of July and August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter. Although, we will look to protect current sales, in the form of buying call options, should the market begin to show signs of a potential extended rally.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Buyers stepped into the corn market on Tuesday as traders covered short positions triggered by an optimistic turn higher in the wheat market, and trading activity before First Notice Day on September contracts and the three-day Labor Day weekend.
- The key is whether price movement after today’s session will be followed through on Wednesday. The last three weeks, corn futures have had a strong day of buying, only to be followed by selling pressure the next few sessions to remove those gains. With a large supply forecast, and a limited demand base, the corn market is still in a defensive posture and rallies are met with selling pressure.
- Rallies in the corn market are limited by producer selling pressure as September First Notice Day is Friday this week, and producers are likely pricing September basis contracts or moving old crop bushels. Most basis contracts will likely need to be priced or rolled out by the middle of the week.
- This morning, the USDA announced an export sale for corn to Mexico, who purchased 127,760 mt (5.03 mb) of corn for the new marketing year.
- USDA released weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon. The corn crop dropped 2% to 65% good to excellent, 1% below market expectations. Crop ratings typically fall off as the crop gets closer to maturity. As of Sunday, 84% of the crop was in dough stage, 46% dented, and 11% mature. All three ratings were above the 5-year average.
Above: The market’s break below 390 puts it at risk of trading lower towards the 372 support level. Should prices close below there, the next level of support could be found near 360. If a bullish catalyst triggers a market turnaround overhead resistance remains between 400 and 414 before they can move toward the 430 area.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive session, and so far, November soybeans have gained 13 ½ cents this week. Today’s upward move followed yesterday’s crop progress report, which showed a slight decline in conditions from the previous week. Soybean meal also closed higher, while soybean oil finished lower, in line with the decline in crude oil prices.
- Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report and the good to excellent rating for soybeans came in at 67%, which was down 1% from last week. 89% of the crop is setting pods, which compares to 81% a week ago and the 5-year average of 88%. 6% of the crop is dropping leaves, compared to 4% last year and the average of 4%.
- In Indonesia, palm oil production is expected to fall by as much as 5% from last year as a result of adverse weather and old palm trees. The US has estimated that global palm oil reserves are headed for their lowest levels in three years, which could be supportive to world veg oil prices and US soybean oil.
- There have been no export sales reported so far this week, but US soybeans are priced very competitively, and China is expected to need a large amount of soybeans by the end of the year. There have also been rumors of potential Chinese purchases, which could be confirmed before the end of the week.
Above: Since the front month continuous chart rolled to the November contract on August 15, soybean futures have largely traded sideways. A breakout above 985 could push prices towards the 1005 – 1040 resistance area. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat finished with double-digit gains in Chicago and Kansas City futures, with smaller gains in Minneapolis. Support came from higher corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat futures; the Paris contracts closed higher for the first time in the past five sessions. The US Dollar index testing yesterday’s low was also helpful. It was noted that September and December Chicago wheat posted bullish key reversals; however, today’s risk-on trade in grains may have been mostly technical in nature due to a lack of fresh news.
- The USDA rated the spring wheat crop at 69% good to excellent, down from 73% last week. And while this was perhaps a bigger than expected drop, conditions remain well above year ago levels of 37% good to excellent. Additionally, 51% of the crop is harvested, compared to 31% last week, 50% last year, and 53% on average.
- According to a Bloomberg survey, Canadian 24/25 wheat production is expected to increase 5.8% to 33.8 mmt from 32 mmt last season. Estimates ranged from 32 to 35.1 mmt. Canola production was also forecast to increase by 4%.
- The Rosario Grain Exchange stated that the recent rains in Argentina were not enough to boost the wheat crop. Winter frosts and a lack of rain are concerning; however, storms are predicted to move through this weekend. These may bring better rain coverage, but it remains to be seen how intense they will be. Argentine wheat is currently developing, with harvest typically starting in November and ending in January. Recent frosts have also been a concern in southern Brazil.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 590 – 610 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Breaking the initial support at 537 puts December Chicago wheat at risk of dropping toward the July low of 514 ¼. However, the market may find support between 524 and 514 ¼ allowing it to stabilize. On the upside, resistance remains around the 50-day moving average; a rally above this level could push prices toward the 570–590 range.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 640 – 670 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support near the 530 area in the December contract. Should this area hold and prices turn higher, overhead resistance could still be found near 565 and again between 573 and 580. A close below 527 could lead to a further slide towards 470.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: December Minneapolis wheat appears to have found support near 560. Should prices continue higher, they could encounter resistance near the 50-day moving average and again in the 617 – 637 area. To the downside, a break below 560 could put the market at risk of a further decline towards support around 540.
Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Other Charts / Weather
5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
