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8-25 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Higher, Soybeans Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

Grain Market Insider Interactive Quote Board

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning with the September contract up 3 cents at $3.91-1/4 and December up 2-1/2 cents at $4.14. December is trading above the 21-day moving average for the first time since July 3 as funds begin exiting short positions.
  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected large yields and a record US corn harvest for 2025, but mentioned disease in the Midwest a number of times that could impact yields at harvest, and this has worried funds. The average yield was pegged at 182.7 bpa which compares to the USDA’s 188.8 bpa.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buy back a portion of their net short position. They bought back 31,464 contracts which reduced their short position to 144,650 contracts as of August 19.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower with the September contract down 1 cent at $10.35-1/2 while November is down 1/4 cent at $10.58. October soybean meal is up $5.70 at $294 while October soybean meal is down 0.18 cents at 54.77 cents.
  • Some weakness today could be coming from comments made by China over the weekend. The country said that “rampant” US protectionism threatens agricultural ties as a result of the tariffs. Trade is likely concerned that China does not agree to a trade deal.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 35,273 contracts which flipped their net short position to a net long position of just 3 contracts. They sold 13,070 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,070 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with September Chicago wheat up 4-1/2 cents to $5.09 while September KC wheat is 3 cents higher to $5.01. Wheat has been sluggish but has likely been following corn’s recent turn higher.
  • The Argentinian wheat crop is expected to improve following rains in key areas boosting soil moisture and helping uptake of nutrients as farmers re-fertilize the crop.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as net sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,837 contracts which increased their net short position to 98,132 contracts. They sold 825 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 51,380 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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