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8-21 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Day With Wheat Leading

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning and have maintained support at the $4.00 level this week. September futures are up 2 cents at $3.82 while December is up 1-3/4 to $4.05-3/4.
  • The ProFarmer tour found yields in Illinois at 199.58 bpa which were below their estimates from last year and below USDA guesses. In Western Iowa, yields were found between 195.03 and 207.25 bpa which were above last year. While yields look promising, some disease risks were found as well.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 950k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,525k tons. This would compare to 1,959k a week ago and 1,410k a year ago.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are higher this morning with the September contract up 1-1/4 cents to $10.16-1/4 while November soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.37. September soybean meal is up $0.20 at $292.20 while September soybean oil is up 0.26 cents at 51.46 cents.
  • In Illinois, the crop tour found soybean pod counts at 1,479.22 per 3’x3′ plot which compared to 1,419.11. Illinois soybeans may be weaker than initially thought. Western Iowa pod counts were better than last year between 1,279.25 in the Northwest and 1,562.54 in the Southwest.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 800k tons. This would compare to 755k a week ago and 1,633k a year ago at this time.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with wheat leading the grain complex in general. The lack of a deal between Russia and Ukraine may be supportive or funds may finally be buying back short positions due to oversold conditions.
  • Russia’s Jul-Aug exports off 38% year over year as new vessel approval rules stall loadings; terminals overflowing with 120 ships awaiting clearance.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 500k and 825k tons with an average guess of 631k. This would compare to 723k tons a week ago and 493k a year ago.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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