8-20 End of Day: Markets Settle Mixed Following Relatively Quiet Two-Sided Trade
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 375 | -3 |
| DEC ’24 | 398 | -2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 440 | -1.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 976 | 0 |
| JAN ’25 | 994.25 | -0.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1032 | 1 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 533 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 556.5 | 4.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 592.5 | 3 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 546 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 561.25 | 4.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 585 | 4.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 590.25 | 3 |
| DEC ’24 | 606.5 | 3 |
| SEP ’25 | 646.25 | 3.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5627.75 | -2.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 73.26 | -0.4 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2528.8 | 10.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market settled near session lows after failing to follow through on yesterday’s positive price strength, as traders took profits following improved findings in the Pro Farmer crop tour and strong weekly crop ratings.
- Despite another round of new crop flash sales to China and Mexico, the soybean market gave up its earlier gains in the session and closed mixed. Better than expected crop ratings and lower meal prices, led by profit taking, offset the rally in soybean oil, and contributed to the selling pressure.
- With little fresh news to trade, the wheat complex staged a firm close across all three classes as the US Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since January of this year, and traders potentially covered some short positions in response to oversold conditions.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Sellers stepped back into the corn market on Tuesday as prices failed to follow through after Monday’s strength. Strong, consistent crop ratings and improved results on the Pro Farmer crop tour triggered some long liquidation.
- Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report saw the corn crop maintain its 67% good to excellent rating. This was steady with last week and 1% above expectations. The consistent ratings during this time window signal a large potential corn crop and keep yield estimates based on crop rating forecasting above trendline. As for maturity, 74% of the crop was in dough stage and 30% was dented, both ahead of 5-year averages.
- The Pro Farmer crop tour published yield results for Onio and South Dakota yesterday. Ohio has a yield potential of 183.29 bu/acre and South Dakota was 156.71 bu/acre. Both numbers were slightly below last year’s tour levels. The tour moved into Nebraska, western Indiana, and eastern Illinois today.
- The US Dollar Index softened for the second straight day this week, down over a full basis point since Friday’s close as technical charts broke lower. The prospects of a more friendly monetary policy in the near future has pressured the dollar index. The weaker dollar should help US grains compete on the global export market.
- Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month, as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.
Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.
Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day mixed with the November contract unchanged, while the deferred contracts were fractionally lower to a penny higher. Despite today’s move, November futures remain 21 cents off Friday’s low. Trade struggled with friendly news of export sales to China today against bearish news that crop conditions were unchanged when they were expected to fall. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil reversed for a higher close.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged at 68%, which compares to last year’s 58% at this time. 95% of the crop was blooming, compared to 91% last week, and 81% of the crop is setting pods versus 72% last week and the 5-year average of 80%.
- This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 239,492 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
- The Pro Farmer crop tour is ongoing and yesterday in Ohio, soybean yields were seen below the USDA’s most recent estimates. Soybean yields in South Dakota were seen up from last year.
Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies near 1000, with further resistance between 1016 and 1050. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat had a positive close in all three US classes today. Matif wheat did not offer much direction, with a mostly neutral close and only a slight gain in the front month September contract. But the US Dollar Index saw another significant drop today, which may have provided some support to the wheat complex. At the time of writing, the index is down 0.43 to 101.45, the lowest level since January 2.
- According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, as of Sunday, winter wheat was 96% harvested. This is slightly above the 95% pace of both a year ago and the 5-year average. Spring wheat was rated 73% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and well above the 38% rating last year. Additionally, 31% of the crop is harvested compared to 35% last year and 36% on average.
- According to their ag minister, Russia’s total grain production estimate remains unchanged at 132 mmt. However, SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.4 mmt to 83.3 mmt. For reference, the USDA is estimating 83 mmt of Russian wheat production and the Russian ag minister is estimating 86 mmt.
- There was little other fresh news pertaining to the wheat market today. This may indicate that today’s rally was mostly technical in nature. Kansas City futures, in particular, are on the lower end of some technical indicators, signaling oversold conditions. Additionally, KC futures show a buy crossover signal on daily stochastics.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.
Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Other Charts / Weather
7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
