Equity markets are sharply lower this morning, with the Dow down over 700 points at the time of writing. But grains are rebuffing this weakness with positive trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
The outlook for the next seven days has turned a bit drier for Illinois and Iowa, although it has rain in the forecast for some of the already wet areas of Minnesota.
The recent increase in Middle East tensions led to a rise in crude oil prices on Wednesday. However, all of those gains have been given up in subsequent trading. This weakness may limit the upside potential for grain futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 202,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The extended weather outlook is a bit drier than it was earlier this week, and may be offering some support to soybeans this morning. However, soybean conditions remain historically high so August weather may need to be more extreme to cause a significant rally in beans.
Palm oil futures surged on Friday, and global rapeseed supplies are declining, which should support soybean oil prices. However, US soybean oil futures are down this morning, likely due to the lower crude oil market.
The US Dollar Index is seeing a huge drop this morning. At the time of writing it is down about 1.20 to 103.20. This is the lowest level since late March, and may be offering some support to wheat (and the grain complex) today.
Argentina is experiencing dry weather that may adversely affect their wheat crop. Reportedly in July, they experienced 30% less rainfall than normal. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentine wheat was rated just 31% good to excellent last week, down from 39% the week prior.
Russian wheat prices have been firming up a bit, potentially lending support to prices. However, their FOB export values are still the world’s cheapest at $223 per metric ton.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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