8-2 End of Day: Markets Close Higher on Potential Risk Off Short Covering
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 386.5 | 4.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 403.25 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 448.25 | 5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1027.25 | 10.75 |
| JAN ’25 | 1044 | 11.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1068.5 | 12.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 539 | 7 |
| DEC ’24 | 562.25 | 5.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 598 | 4.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 559.75 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 576.25 | 5.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 597.75 | 6.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 595 | 6.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 614.5 | 6.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 655.25 | 9 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5358.75 | -121.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 72.84 | -2.56 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2453 | -4.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market closed with modest gains across the board as a risk off trade in outside markets, driven by weak unemployment numbers and disappointing manufacturing data, carried over to the commodity sector, triggering profit taking and short covering.
- Record June US crush numbers and another new crop soybean flash sale likely contributed to the risk off sentiment in the soybean market as traders likely covered some short positions going into the weekend.
- Soybean meal and oil closed in opposite directions as meal traded to the upside after finding support below the market in yesterday’s trade. Meanwhile, soybean oil followed through on yesterday’s weakness, with additional pressure coming from sharply lower crude oil.
- Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex settled higher on the day across all three classes, as spillover support from a sharply lower US Dollar likely spurred traders to book profits and cover some short positions ahead of the weekend.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Since the release of the July WASDE, which surprised the market by keeping the 24/25 ending stocks figure around 2.1 billion bushels, Dec ‘25 corn has traded to a fresh contract low while managed funds re-established their record net short position. Even though the weather has been mostly favorable for the crop and the trade may be factoring in a higher potential yield, the USDA is expected to update its acreage estimates in the upcoming August WASDE report, which could shift lower due to the slow planting pace last spring. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Moderate buying moved into the grain markets to end the week as corn futures finished with modest gains. Despite the buying strength, December corn futures still finished the week down 6 ¾ cents. Technically, corn futures held and closed above the psychological 400 barrier.
- Markets in general saw a high amount of volatility to end the week. Disappointing manufacturing data and a weak jobs number this morning triggered aggressive selling pressure in the equity markets, and position squaring or risk off trade in other markets. For corn futures, the negative trade action may have led to some short covering and profit taking during the session.
- The cash market trend may be a key for near-term corn prices. From August into September, producers may be looking to move old crop corn to make room for fall harvest. In some regions, cash corn basis levels have begun to slip as grain is moving into the pipeline.
- Private analyst group, StoneX release their producer survey for the month of August. Based on their survey, StoneX estimates a national corn yield of 182.3 bu/acre with national production at 15.207 billion bushels. Both estimates are above USDA forecasted targets.
- Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.
Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed higher to end the week with funds likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybeans made new lows for the year this week as weather forecasts continue to show good overall conditions. Soybean meal closed higher today, lending support to soybeans, while soybean oil ended lower with pressure from sharply lower crude oil.
- Despite today’s published soybean sale of 202,000 mt to China for 24/25, new crop soybean sales are at a four-year low, just ahead of the pace set in 2019. US exporters will need stronger growth in demand to help push prices higher. The recent sales to China have confirmed some of the recent rumors of Chinese purchases.
- For the week, September soybeans lost 24 cents to close at 1018 and November soybeans lost 21 ¾ cents to close at 1027 ¼. September soybean meal ended the week with a $0.60 gain to $333.70, and September soybean oil rallied 1.33 cents to 41.68 cents.
- As in corn, crop conditions in soybeans have been good with the most recent rating at 67% good to excellent for all soybeans. Yesterday, StoneX estimated the national soybean yield at 52.6 bpa with total production at 4.483 billion, both of which exceed current USDA projections.
Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat posted gains in all three categories today alongside higher corn and soybeans, despite sharp losses in the stock market following a weak jobs report this morning. There is some talk that investors were taking profits on the potential for a weaker US economy, including funds buying back short grain positions. Additionally, the US Dollar saw a significant drop today to its lowest level since March 21, which offered support to the grain markets.
- Argentina’s July rainfall was reported to be 30% below normal, and the dry weather is taking a toll on wheat. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop was rated only 31% good to excellent as of last week, an 8% drop from the previous week.
- According to the USDA, about 16% of spring wheat acres were experiencing drought as of July 30, a 1% increase from the week prior. While crop conditions are still favorable in North Dakota, conditions deteriorate moving west. A storm front may develop over the weekend and into early next week, potentially bringing scattered showers to the northern Plains.
- The province of Henan, China’s largest wheat producer, accounts for about a third of the country’s supply. The wheat harvest in that region is almost complete, but heat and wet weather have caused concerns about the quality of wheat in storage. Additionally, Vice Premier Liu Guozhong visited Henan after heavy rain and flooding, urging authorities to improve efforts to increase grain yields. China has consistently been working towards self-sufficiency in terms of national food security.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
