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8-19 Opening Update: Grains Lower to Start the Day

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn futures are lower this morning with September down 3-1/4 cents to $3.79-3/4 and December down 3-3/4 cents to $4.02-3/4. This comes following large yield numbers from the crop tour and good USDA crop ratings.
  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour has wrapped up in Ohio and in South Dakota. In Ohio, corn yield was estimated at 185.69 bpa which compared to 196 bpa from the WASDE report but is above last year’s 183.29 bpa. In South Dakota, yields were seen at 174.18 bpa which was above the USDA guess of 168 bpa.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings fall one point from last week to 71% good to excellent with 97% silking, 72% in dough stage, 27% dented, and 3% mature.

Corn Futures Attempt to Bounce: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. However, losses tied to last week’s bearish USDA report were quickly reversed with a strong finish to the week. With December now the front month, a gap sits below the market between 380 and 400. On the upside, targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap near 430. 

  • Soybeans are slightly higher with the September contract up 1/4 cent at $10.20-3/4. November up 1/4 cent at $10.41-3/4, Sep meal up $5.10 at $285.50, and Sep bean oil down 0.69 cents to 52.58 cents. Soybeans are now technically overbought.
  • The ProFarmer tour saw soybean results above last year in both Ohio and South Dakota. In Ohio, number of pods in a 3’x3′ plot were 1287.28 which compared to 1229.93 last year. In SD, they were 1188.45 compared to 1025.89 last year.
  • The Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions unchanged at 68% good to excellent with 95% of the crop blooming and 82% setting pods, both on par with the 5-year average.

Soybeans Rally Through Resistance: Soybean futures rallied sharply in early August after a bullish USDA report cut 2.5 million acres from 2025 harvested area projections. Prices broke through resistance near 1030 and have since held above it, with this zone now acting as support on any pullback. On the upside, the next key resistance stands at the spring highs near 1080, a level that has capped rallies for the past year. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower with September Chicago down 2-3/4 cents at $5.00, and it did slip below that level overnight. Sep KC wheat is down 4-1/2 cents at $5.02. There has been talk about larger global production despite the USDA lowering that number in the WASDE report.
  • Spring wheat crop conditions rose 1 point from last week to 50% good to excellent with 36% of the crop now harvested, on par with the 5-year average. The winter wheat harvest is now 94% complete which is also on par with recent years.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 395k tons which compared to 415k last week and 374k tons a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Republic of South Africa.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s mid-June rally was short-lived, with futures retreating back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support lies just above 500, the early-August low. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would signal renewed strength and open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590. 

KC Wheat Continues Sideways Trend: KC wheat futures rallied sharply in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580 before weakening into month-end. The pullback pushed prices below the 50-day moving average, which now stands as key resistance on any rebound. Support is first seen at the recent lows near 505, followed by secondary support at the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Holds Below Moving Averages: Spring wheat futures faced pressure in July as crop conditions improved and weather turned favorable across key growing areas. While August has seen some support, gains remain limited. Technically, strong resistance sits just above 600 at a cluster of major moving averages, with a secondary target near 650 if momentum strengthens. On the downside, recent lows around 580 are expected to provide solid support against further weakness.

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