8-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Near Session Highs, as Wheat Settles Mixed
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 378 | 7.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 400.25 | 7.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 441.25 | 6.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 976 | 19 |
| JAN ’25 | 994.5 | 18.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1031 | 14.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 528.25 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 552.25 | -0.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 589.5 | 0.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 540.75 | 1 |
| DEC ’24 | 556.5 | 1.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 580.75 | 0.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 587.25 | -6 |
| DEC ’24 | 603.5 | -5.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 643 | -2.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5613.25 | 35 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 73.89 | -1.65 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2519 | 4.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Higher than expected corn export inspections sparked some profit taking off of the recent contract lows in the September and December contracts as buyers regained control of the corn market at the beginning of the week.
- The soybean market rebounded from last week’s contract lows, driven by new flash sales of new crop soybeans to China and unknown destinations, alongside a warm and dry weather forecast. Additionally, strong gains in both soybean meal and oil provided further support, contributing to a 6 ½ cent increase in September Board crush margins.
- Despite a sharply lower US Dollar and higher neighboring corn and soybean markets, the wheat complex closed mixed, after all three classes traded on both sides of unchanged. Minneapolis wheat led to the downside as the spring wheat harvest expands, while KC contracts maintained small gains, and Chicago showed weakness in the front month contracts, with small gains in the deferred months.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Buyers stepped back into the corn market to start the week as good weekly export inspections triggered some profit taking in the corn market.
- Weekly export inspections remain strong late into the marketing year. Last week, US exporters shipped 45.9 mb (1.166 mmt) of corn, which was at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1.972 bb, up 38% from the previous year and running ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.
- The most watched of the crop tours, the Pro Farmer Crop tour, runs through Wednesday. The tour started in the eastern and western Corn Belt this morning and will work toward the center by Wednesday. Monday’s results will likely be very variable, but totals will improve as the tour moves into the core of the Corn Belt. Final tour numbers will be released on Thursday night.
- Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.
Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold, 6,462 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 249,007 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day significantly higher in a reversal from Friday’s poor close that brought November futures to new contract lows. Today, there was support across the grain complex as a result of the 7 to 10-day forecast which showed warm and very dry conditions approaching across the Corn Belt. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.
- Later this afternoon, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and trade is anticipating a decline in crop ratings by 1 to 2 percentage points. The upcoming warm and dry weather could take ratings down further in the coming weeks, but yields are still expected to be near record levels.
- This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 332,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
- Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of soybeans in the week ending August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position and funds are estimated to have sold an additional 2,500 contracts since then.
Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies between 1016 and 1050, with further resistance near 1080. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,431 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 174,447 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat ultimately had a mixed close. September and December Chicago wheat were down slightly, with deferred contracts a little higher. Kansas City futures were marginally higher across the board, but Minneapolis led the way to the downside as spring wheat harvest expands. The relative weakness in wheat today is a bit surprising given the strength of corn and soybeans, and a sharply lower US Dollar. The USD Index today hit the lowest level since January and as of writing is sub the 102 level.
- Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.8 mb, bringing total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year to 168 mb. This is 26% higher than the same period last year and well ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace of a 15% increase. Total wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 825 mb.
- Interfax reported that Russia’s wheat yields are 22% behind last year at about 4 mt per hectare (2.47 acres). Even though yields are down versus last year, according to Russia’s ag ministry, overall quality is higher. As of August 14, the country has harvested about 59.8 mmt, 3.2 mt behind last year’s pace.
- According to Egypt’s Supply Minister Sherif Farouk, Egypt’s wheat stocks are ample enough to last over six months, and the country continues to implement its policy of direct wheat purchases. This comes on the heels of its largest ever wheat tender of 3.8 mmt, of which only about 280,000 mt were fulfilled.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,956 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 73,288 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average near 583, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,214 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 32,824 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 614, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 13. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 558 contracts between August 7 – 13, bringing their total position to a net short 25,695 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
