8-16 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Make Fresh Lows as Wheat Rebounds
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 370.5 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 392.5 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 435 | -3.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 957 | -11.5 |
| JAN ’25 | 976 | -11 |
| NOV ’25 | 1016.75 | -8 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 530 | 1.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 552.5 | 2.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 589 | 3.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 539.75 | 2.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 555 | 2.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 580.25 | 2.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 593.25 | 7 |
| DEC ’24 | 609 | 7 |
| SEP ’25 | 645.25 | 6.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5580.25 | 12.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 75.55 | -1.44 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2515.6 | 46.2 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Technical selling, and the continued movement of old crop supplies into the market, helped press the corn market to new contract lows and contract low closes in the September and December contracts.
- Despite yesterday’s strong NOPA crush report, which showed a record number of soybeans crushed in the month of July, November soybeans printed a new contract low close at the end of today’s session, as the prospect of a large crop and soft new crop demand looms over the market.
- Minneapolis contracts led the wheat complex to a higher close, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar and gains in Matif wheat, which finally ended higher after four consecutive lower closes. Heavy rains and quality concerns surrounding the spring wheat crop further supported the Minneapolis contracts.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the US Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Follow-through selling after yesterday’s difficult close pushed corn futures to new lows, resulting in contract low closes in today’s trade. Technical selling, driven by the likely movement of old crop supplies and farmer selling, dominated the markets. December corn futures closed lower for the third consecutive week, losing 2 ½ cents.
- Producer selling will be a limiting factor in the corn market as basis contracts must be priced by the month’s end. Additionally, producers will be looking to move old crop supplies to make room for this fall’s harvest.
- The corn market will be watching field tours and potential yield results with upcoming crop tours over the next few weeks. The USDA has projected a lofty yield projection, and market participants will be looking for confirmation of this potential. The highly publicized Pro Farmer Tour will start next Monday. Strong results could limit corn prices in the near term.
- Weak cash markets will likely pressure futures as producers price old crop bushels, and early southern harvest results enter the pipeline. Talk in the countryside of weaking basis is starting to grow as those bushels are hitting the market and merchandisers are getting comfortable with fresh supplies.
Above: The gap higher on the continuous chart represents the 20-cent spread premium between the September contract and the (now represented) December contract. A rally above 412 could put the market on track to test the 425 – 430 resistance area. Whereas a break below 390 may put the market at risk of testing the 370 area.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. Should a bullish catalyst enter the market to turn prices higher, we are targeting the 1090 – 1120 range from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower with the November contract making new contract lows. Yesterday, futures were briefly higher earlier in the day thanks to a strong NOPA crush report and solid export sales. Unfortunately, trade is much more concerned with the good weather forecast and large crop being anticipated this fall. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.
- For the week, September soybeans lost 50 cents to end at 938 ¾ and November soybeans lost 45 ½ cents to end at 957. September soybean meal lost $8.30 to end at $303.40, while September soybean oil lost 2.47 cents to 39.95 cents.
- Since August 9, funds are estimated to have sold 21,500 contracts of soybeans. While funds may have been sellers this week, it is likely that there has been selling on the commercial side as well as producers selling what is left of their old crop in order to make room in their bins for this fall’s harvest.
- According to the EIA report, five renewable diesel plants were opened this past year. This brings the total to 22 plants in production, and the additional five plants should boost production by 44% to 4.33 billion gallons per year. This was supportive to soybean oil today, despite California’s continued pursuit to limit the amount of soybean oil in biofuel production.
Above: The upward gap on the chart represents the 16-cent premium between the September and (now represented) November contract. Overhead resistance for November beans lies between 1016 and 1050, with further resistance near 1080. To the downside, a break below 950 puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three US wheat classes gained today, aided by a weaker US Dollar Index and support from Matif wheat. The Paris wheat contracts stopped their bleeding and closed higher after four consecutive days of decline. With Matif wheat being oversold and leaving two gaps above the current market level, signs of potential recovery are emerging, which could benefit the US market.
- Minneapolis futures led the wheat complex higher, likely due to heavy rains in parts of North Dakota this week, which slowed the spring wheat harvest. The wet conditions have also raised concerns about the quality of the crop.
- The Ukrainian agriculture ministry reported that their wheat harvest is complete, with 21.7 mmt collected. This aligns closely with the USDA’s estimate of 21.6 mmt and matches last year’s harvest of 21.6 mmt.
- Germany is expected to harvest its smallest grain crop since 2018, totaling 39.1 mmt, according to a German agricultural association. The decline is attributed to lower yields and reduced planted area, with wheat production specifically expected to drop by 13% to 18.76 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on July 29th as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert pressure on the market, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 22-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. The 50-day moving average does present overhead resistance, and any rally above it could encounter further resistance between 580 and 600. On the downside, initial support lies near 537, with further support around 514.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since mid-July, the wheat market has mostly drifted sideways as the trade tries to balance smaller US and global wheat supplies against cheaper world export prices. During this period, a potential seasonal low was also marked on the front month continuous charts as managed funds maintained a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 15-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Below the market, initial support lies near 550 with further support around the 540 – 530 area. Overhead, initial resistance could be encountered around the 50-day moving average near 583, and any rally above it could face additional resistance near 600.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since printing a near-term low in mid-July, Minneapolis wheat has trended mostly sideways as the market attempts to balance smaller US and world supplies versus lower world export prices and lower world demand. During this period, managed funds have maintained their sizable, short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though low Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The upside gap on the chart represents the 17-cent premium between the September contract and the now represented December contract. Initial support below the market likely comes in near 595, and a close below there could put the market at risk of trading down towards 575. To the upside, initial resistance lies near the 50-day moving average of 618, and any rally above there could encounter further resistance between 630 and 635.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
