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8-15 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn futures are trading lower to start the day with the December contract remaining in its downward channel. Friday’s rally brought it to the top of this channel, but no important technical resistance has been broken yet.
  • Analyst group ASAP Agri increased its estimate for the 2025 Ukrainian corn harvest to 30.9 mmt from its previous estimate of 27.6 mmt citing favorable weather and key rains in July.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn. They sold 2,364 contracts as of August 12 which left them with a net short position of 176,114 contracts.

Corn Futures Slump to Start August: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower following significant gains on Friday and gains of a whopping 55 cents last week in the November contract which was kicked off by a bullish WASDE report. November futures remain above all major moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
  • On Friday, NOPA crush numbers were released, and July crush jumped to 195.699 million bushels which was well above the average trade guess of 190.8 mb and was a six-month high for the month of July. It was up 5.6% from the June’s 185.27 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 30,660 contracts which reduced their net short position to 35,270 contracts. They sold 10,527 contracts of bean oil and bought back 24,238 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Test April Lows: Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are likely following the downward momentum of corn and soybeans. September Chicago wheat has managed to hold firm support above the 5-dollar mark.
  • The US dollar is trading higher which may be pressuring the grain complex as a whole. Poor inflation and jobs data released recently, and Jerome Powell will speak at a central bank meeting this week potentially providing a decision on interest rate cuts.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 8,526 contracts which left them with a net short position of 89,295 contracts. They bought back 6,508 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 50,555 contracts.

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows: KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide: Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

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