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8-15 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher, Wheat Lower to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after December futures ended the day unchanged yesterday and are now just below the $4.00 mark. Futures seem to have found some support around the $3.90 area.
  • Yesterday’s export sales were ok for corn at 1,959k tons but were down sharply from last week’s 3,334k and compared to 921k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
  • Estimates for the CONAB report see corn planted acreage increasing to 231,680k hectares, up 121k from last month. Yield is also expected to rise by 198 kg/ha of 15.2%

Corn Futures Slump to Start August: After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following sharp losses yesterday that were mainly caused by lower soybean oil and fears over poor export demand from China. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.
  • Projections for the NOPA crush report see July soybean crush at 190.8 million bushels. This would be up 4.3% from July last year and up 2.7% from the previous month.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales fall from last week to 755k tons. This compared to 1,013k last week and 1,566k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were unknown, Mexico, and the Netherlands.

Soybeans Test April Lows: Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis trade lower. Today, President Trump and Putin will meat to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, and the results may impact wheat.
  • Yesterday’s export sales were decent for wheat at 723k tons. This compared to 738k last week and 273k a year ago. Top buyers were South Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines.
  • In Germany, the 2025 grain output forecast has been raised for both wheat and corn. Total grains are estimated at 43 mmt up from 41.7 mmt last month with wheat at 22.4 mmt compared to 21.6 mmt a month ago. This is due to larger acreage and better yields than expected. 

Chicago Wheat Holds Range: Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows: KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide: Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

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