In this week’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 4.7 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 31.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.7 mb exceeded the 38.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.250 bb.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service lowered their estimate of Ukrainian corn exports to just under 22 mb. Drought conditions may be taking a toll on crops in both Ukraine and southern Russia. Interestingly, this estimate is about 10% below the official USDA figure from Monday’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their estimate of Argentine corn production by roughly 1.5 mmt to 49 mmt. This is more in line with the USDA at 50 mmt but is above the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 46.5 mmt.
Today’s weekly export sales report showed an increase of 8.1 mb in soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 49.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.8 mb fell below the 16.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
NOPA crush data will be released later this morning for the month of July, which is expected to be a record. The average trade guess comes in at 182 mb, which would be above the 176 mb crushed in June, and the 173.3 mb from July of last year.
Good rains are moving across the central US today, which will likely be reflected in reductions to drought readings. However, once this system moves through, the extended outlook shows little moisture for the remainder of August.
In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures have yet to stop the bleeding, with September currently trading lower for the fourth consecutive session. The US Dollar Index is also higher this morning. All three classes of US wheat appear to be somewhat ignoring these bearish factors, as they have traded both sides of unchanged this morning.
September Chicago wheat approached the 40-day moving average (551) overnight before backing off. It has not traded above this average since early June. This may act as near-term resistance, but a rally above this level would look technically strong.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
