8-14 End of Day: Wheat Settles Mixed on the Day; Corn and Beans Rebound
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 381 | 3.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 400.75 | 3.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 440.5 | 0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 968.5 | 6 |
| JAN ’25 | 986.5 | 6.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1024.25 | 5.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 534.75 | 6 |
| DEC ’24 | 556.25 | 4.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 590.75 | 1.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 546.25 | -1.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 561.25 | -1.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 585.25 | -1.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 592 | -1 |
| DEC ’24 | 608.75 | -2.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 645 | -6.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5473 | 14 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 75.88 | -0.92 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2460.6 | -24.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Monday’s bullish reversal remains supportive to corn prices as the market consolidates with limited upside movement due to continued non-threatening weather and farmer selling.
- After printing new contract lows in the September and November contracts, the soybean market posted a technical recovery from extremely oversold conditions as traders likely covered short positions from the recent break in prices.
- Soybean meal and oil settled in opposite directions after both traded higher earlier in the session. While meal regained most of yesterday’s losses, soybean oil came under pressure from reports that California has moved to limit carbon credits on soybean and canola oil’s use for biofuel to 20%.
- The wheat complex settled mixed on the day following two-sided trade on both sides of unchanged. Chicago contracts closed strong on technical buying with bull spreading noted, despite further declines in Matif wheat, while KC and Minneapolis settled lower.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6–10 and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures saw some buying action on Wednesday as prices consolidated near the top of Monday’s trading range. The current reversal low from Monday remains supportive to the market as a short-term low. Consistent non-threatening weather overall and producer selling are limiting to the upside in corn.
- Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.072 million barrels per day last week. This was up 0.5% from the previous week and up 0.3% from last year, as overall ethanol production remains strong. Total corn used last week was estimated at 106.40 million bushels, which is slightly behind the pace to reach the USDA corn usage target for the marketing year.
- Weekly corn export sales will be announced on Thursday morning. Expectations for old crop sales range from 300,000 – 550,000 mt and new crop sales between 150,000 – 800,000 mt. The old crop marketing year ends on August 31, so the market focus will be on new crop sales and shipment totals.
- Despite the overall sideways trade in the corn market, the National Corn Index has trended lower since the first of August, reflecting producer selling and weaker cash basis as old crop supplies are being priced and moved.
Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the 1040 – 1070 range versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Additionally in June, the close below 1180 triggered our Plan B strategy, which recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With a key part of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the mid-1100s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- After making new lows in the overnight session, soybeans ended the day higher breaking a 6-day losing streak. Today’s move higher was likely technical in nature with the market being extremely oversold and prices 54 cents lower so far this month in the November contract. Soybean meal led the way higher while soybean oil was lower.
- Yesterday, there was another daily announcement that two cargoes of new crop soybeans were sold to China as the US export window opens. US soybeans are at a discount to South America’s as Brazilian basis levels have been getting more expensive.
- Yesterday, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month. This estimate is still well below the USDA’s estimate from Monday which has Brazilian soybean production at 153 mmt.
- Forecasts predict rain across the Midwest this week, along with moderate temperatures that should benefit the crops and may continue to put pressure on prices. However, North Dakota has received excessive rain, leading to flooding, while Missouri will be under a flash flood watch overnight.
Above: Given the soybean market’s recent slide, it is now showing signs of being very oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher. Should that happen, prices could encounter overhead resistance between 1000 and 1040 on a rally toward the 1080 – 1085 area. To the downside, a break below the 950 support area puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Following a day of two-sided trade, wheat had a mixed close, with gains in Chicago but small losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Bull spreading was noted in Chicago contracts, where the front month attracted more buying interest than deferred contracts. However, this bounce may largely be technical in nature as funds cover some of their short positions. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat left another small gap on the chart, with September closing at a new near-term low, which could continue to pressure the US wheat market.
- This morning’s CPI data suggested that US inflation is easing, reinforcing the idea that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September. This potential rate cut could impact the US Dollar Index and equity markets, both of which can influence wheat prices.
- As of August 11, European Union soft wheat exports reached 3.1 mmt since the season began on July 1. According to the European Commission, this marks a 22% decline year-on-year, down from 4 mmt during the same period last year.
- Romania’s agriculture minister stated that their 2024 wheat harvest, despite drought challenges, is expected to surpass last year’s by 1 mmt, based on preliminary data. For context, the 2023 Romanian wheat crop totaled 10.6 mmt.
- Scattered rains are expected in the northern Plains through the rest of this week and possibly into next week. This could delay the spring wheat harvest and potentially cause quality concerns if precipitation is heavy. However, spring wheat remains highly rated in both North Dakota and Minnesota, with 81% and 89% rated good to excellent, respectively.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Since mid-July, Chicago wheat has been rangebound between 514 on the bottom and 556 up top. Should prices close above 556, they could run into resistance around 580 on a move toward the 590 – 600 area. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
