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8-13 Midday: Markets Continue to React to WASDE Report Impact

ByGrain Market Insider

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  • Corn is trading higher at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which revealed a record-large acreage increase in the August update along with a significant boost to yield estimates.
  • Markets remain concerned about whether U.S. export demand for corn can grow enough to offset the impact of a record crop.
  • U.S. crop tours assessing the current corn crop are set to begin next week and are expected to provide either confirmation or contradiction of the USDA’s yield and acreage estimates.
  • Ethanol production rebounded to 321 million gallons last week, up from 318 million the previous week and 2% higher year over year. The production process used 109 million bushels of corn, averaging 15.56 million bushels per day — well above the 14.9 million bushels per day needed to meet the USDA’s revised annual forecast of 5.472 billion bushels.

  • Soybeans continue to gain at midday, supported by yesterday’s bullish USDA data. Both soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is moving lower at midday.
  • Soybean futures saw their highest daily trading volume since early April during yesterday’s session.
  • Traders remain cautious despite the current soybean crop being in excellent condition, acknowledging that there’s still time for weather or other factors to impact yields before harvest is complete.
  • While the USDA did trim new crop export projections, forecasting demand remains challenging without a signed trade agreement with China.
  • ANEC raised their Brazil bean export forecast for August to 8.8 million tons, up from 8.15 estimated last week.
  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday as traders digest yesterday’s USDA report, which offered no major surprises for the wheat markets.
  • SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production estimate to 85.2 million tons, up from 83.6 on a larger planted area.
  • Ukraine’s exports since July 1st remain slow, totaling 1.42 million tons — down significantly from 2.61 million tons during the same period last year.
  • EU SRW exports through August 10 are down 56% year over year due to weaker demand and Black Sea competition.

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