All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	377.75	-5.5
DEC ’24	397.25	-4.25
DEC ’25	440.25	-5.5

Soybeans
NOV ’24	962.5	-23.5
JAN ’25	980.25	-23.25
NOV ’25	1019	-19

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	528.75	-8
DEC ’24	551.75	-8
JUL ’25	589.25	-6.75

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	547.75	-0.5
DEC ’24	562.5	-1
JUL ’25	586.5	-1

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	593	0.75
DEC ’24	611.5	-0.5
SEP ’25	651.5	2.5

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5451.25	81.5

Crude Oil
OCT ’24	76.91	-1.55

Gold
OCT ’24	2484.7	3.9

Grain Market Highlights

The corn market gave back most of its gains from yesterday as sellers regained control, bolstered by the prospect of record yields, continued farmer selling, and weakness in the soybean market.
Bearish supply data from yesterday’s WASDE report continued to loom over the soybean market as sellers returned for the 6th consecutive day and pushed the November contract to new contract lows. Falling Board crush margins from weaker soybean meal and oil also contributed to the weakness.
Soybean oil traded sharply lower following declines in both crude oil and palm oil. While slowing Chinese demand due to abundant supplies continued to weigh on soybean meal.
Lower corn and soybean prices, combined with another day of lower Matif wheat prices, weighed on the US wheat market, which saw both Chicago and KC lower on the day. In contrast, Minneapolis contracts had a mixed close as the prospect of a smaller spring wheat crop, declining ratings, and a slower than average harvest pace hang over the market.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6–10 and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Selling resumed in the corn market, giving back most of Monday’s gains after the USDA WASDE report. The market was pressured by the prospects of record yields, farmer selling, and strong selling in the soybean market
With the potential record yield per bushel on the table, and reduced acres from last year, total corn production is forecasted to be to be 195 mb below last year’s crop. The key will be demand going forward. While the USDA has added to the demand total for the 24/25 crop, the key stocks-to-use ratio is at 13.9% for next year (up 1.3% YOY), signaling a heavier available corn supply than last marketing year.
The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico stepped into the market and picked up 5.4 mb (137,160 mt) for the new marketing year.
The weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon pegged 67% of the crop as good to excellent, steady with last week and 1% higher than trade expectations. In terms of maturity, 60% of the crop was in dough stage and 16% was dented, signaling that fresh supplies may soon enter the pipeline. Both these maturity factors were trending ahead of 5-year averages.
December corn prices have stayed in the trading range that has been in place since late July. A range from 405 on top and 395 on the bottom has held most of the trading activity over the past couple of weeks.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With a key part of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the mid-1100s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day after yesterday’s WASDE report put more pressure on the market and sent the November contract to new contract lows. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions unchanged, and the 7-day forecast is bearish with rain across the Midwest. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
This morning, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month.
Earlier today, the USDA reported private export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This was another new crop sale to China following previous rumors of soybean sales.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, which is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%. 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish for soybeans on nearly all fronts. The yield was raised above the average trade guess to 53.2 bpa from 52.0 bpa last month. Additionally, acreage was increased, production estimates rose, and new crop ending stocks were increased to 560 mb from last month’s 435 mb. Argentinian production was lowered slightly, but Brazilian production was unchanged.

Above: Given the soybean market’s recent slide, it is now showing signs of being very oversold, which can be supportive if a bullish catalyst enters the scene to turn prices higher. Should that happen, prices could encounter overhead resistance between 1000 and 1040 on a rally toward the 1080 – 1085 area. To the downside, a break below the 950 support area puts the market at risk of sliding down to the 915 – 900 support area.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat futures closed lower in the winter contracts, led down by Chicago, while spring wheat saw a mixed close. The decline was driven by further weakness in Matif wheat futures, which left a gap lower on the chart yesterday. The September Matif contract finished at its lowest level since March. Additionally, the overall weakness in the US corn and soybean markets also contributed to the pressure on wheat prices today.
According to the USDA, 93% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 91% on average. As for spring wheat, good to excellent ratings declined from 74% to 72%. This is still well above last year’s 42% rating for this time frame. Additionally, 18% of spring wheat has been harvested, compared to 20% last year and 21% on average.
The Egyptian tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat was a bit of a disappointment; in the end, they only purchased 280,000 mt for delivery in October. Of that total, 180,000 mt will be sourced from Ukraine with the remainder from Bulgaria.
Below freezing temperatures have hit Argentina’s western crop growing regions over the past several days, exacerbating the drought already affecting the wheat crop. Compounding the issue, there is no rain expected in the forecast for the next seven days.
Ukrainian consultancy group ASAP Agri has increased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat exports to 14.6 mmt. This is a 12.3% jump from last month’s 13 mmt projection, and this is said to be a result of a bigger than expected harvest. They added that Ukraine may harvest 21.3 mmt of wheat this year, a 2 mmt increase from what was expected in July.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Above: Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather