8-12 End of Day: Grain Markets Mixed After WASDE: Corn and Wheat Fall, Soybeans Gain
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 371.5 | -13.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 394.5 | -13.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 444 | -6 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’25 | 1032.75 | 21.5 |
| JAN ’26 | 1050.75 | 21.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1064.5 | 9.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 505 | -10 |
| DEC ’25 | 526 | -9.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 567 | -9.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 510.75 | -8.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 530 | -7.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 570 | -6 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.7725 | -0.005 |
| DEC ’25 | 5.95 | -0.0075 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.435 | -0.0325 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6462 | 62.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’25 | 62.47 | -0.62 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3371.9 | -4.3 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn markets closed lower today, pressured by a larger-than-expected increase in yield in today’s Crop Production Report.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean markets were the only grain to post gains today, supported by a bullish WASDE report that raised yield estimates.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat markets followed corn lower today, with all three classes posting losses, pressured by the latest WASDE report.
- To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- A surprise acre adjustment and a larger than expected yield adjustment on the August crop production report pressured corn futures to new contract lows as the market experienced sharp losses. Only the strength in the soybean market likely supported the corn market on the session.
- The USDA increased corn planted acreage by 2.1 million acres to 90.7 million on the crop production report for August. In addition, raised the projected yield well above expectations to 188.8 bu/acre for this year’s corn crop. The surge in acres and yield projected for this year’s U.S. corn crop brought production to 16.742 BB, up 1.875 BB from last year as the U.S. is forecasted for a record crop on record acreage.
- The total of 16.742 BB is a large supply. The USDA made strong demand adjustments totaling 545 mb for exports, feed usage, and ethanol usage to cut into that corn supply, but new crop carryout is projected at 2.117 BB, well over market expectations.
- The combination of corn supply and demand puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3% or approximately 48.5 days of available supply. This is a heavy ratio, and the largest in U.S. corn since 2018-19 marketing year.
- Export demand remains strong as Mexico was a purchaser of corn on a flash sale overnight. Mexico added 315,488 MT (12.42 mb) of corn split between this year and next marketing year. 20,830 MT for 2024-25, and 294,658 MT (11.6 MB) for 2025-26. U.S. corn will stay very competitive in the global export market well into the end of the year at these price levels.
Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- The upside target to exit two-thirds of the 1100 calls at 88 cents has been cancelled, given the substantial rally that would be required to reach that target.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 1161 resistance vs Nov ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- A new upside Plan B call buy stop has been activated. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 1161 vs November ‘26. A close above 1161 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher fueled by a bullish WASDE report. The November contract closed above all major moving averages for the first time in nearly a month and traded within a 41-cent range for the day. Both soybean meal and oil were higher, but not significantly.
- Highlights from today’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade guess of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.
- Yesterday’s export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.
Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower across all three classes today, with Chicago futures posting new contract lows. Market attention was focused on the monthly WASDE report, which leaned bearish for winter wheat but offered slight support for spring wheat. Overall, the report was relatively neutral for the wheat complex. However, weakness in the corn market likely dragged wheat lower as a follower.
- On today’s report, the USDA lowered 25/26 wheat production by 2 mb from last month, to 1.927 bb. Winter wheat production increased 10 mb to 1.355 bb, which was more than expected, whereas spring wheat production fell 19 mb to 485 mb. U.S. exports were also raised by 25 mb.
- U.S. wheat ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 851 mb, but for 25/26 they were cut by 21 mb to 869 mb. Globally, 24/25 carryout declined by 0.9 mmt to 262.7 mmt, and for 25/26 it was dropped buy 1.4 mmt to 260.1 mmt.
- Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvested advanced 4% to 90% complete. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% good to excellent and 16% of that crop is harvested, up from 5% last week.
- According to data from Rosstat, Russia’s 2025 planted area decreased by 1.1%, and grain areas in particular fell by 5.1%. Wheat areas specifically declined from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares.
- Data from Cepea indicates that Brazilian wheat imports are on the rise, while domestic prices are falling. The amount accumulated in the past 12 months is said to be about 20% above the previous 12 months. In addition, Secex reports that Brazil imported 616,910 mt of wheat in July, up 26.7% from their June imports.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 608.50 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- The 681 upside target was lowered to 608.5.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 622 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- The 683 upside sale target was lowered to 662.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Other Charts / Weather
