All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	383.25	6.5
DEC ’24	401.5	6.5
DEC ’25	445.75	5.25

Soybeans
NOV ’24	986	-16.5
JAN ’25	1003.5	-15.75
NOV ’25	1038	-8.25

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	536.75	-5.75
DEC ’24	559.75	-6
JUL ’25	596	-6.25

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	548.25	-5.75
DEC ’24	563.5	-7
JUL ’25	587.5	-7

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	592.25	2.5
DEC ’24	612	3.5
SEP ’25	649	1.25

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5367.5	-2.75

Crude Oil
OCT ’24	78.2	2.59

Gold
OCT ’24	2487.1	36.7

Grain Market Highlights

A record yield print of 183.1 bpa by the USDA was offset by a 700,000 acre drop in harvested acres to bring total 2024/25 carryout down to 2.073 billion bushels, 24 mb lower than last month’s estimate. Likely fund short covering after the WASDE report helped close December corn futures back above the $4 level.
Continued favorable weather to crop development and a bearish WADSE report kept the lower trend intact for soybean futures to start the week. With a record yield estimate of 53.2 bpa and a 1 million acre increase in harvested acres from June, 2024/25 US soybean ending stocks are now projected at 560 million bushels.
Wheat futures ended the day mixed following the August WADSE report with spring wheat futures higher and winter wheat futures lower. US ending stocks came in smaller than expected due mostly in part to a smaller projected yield for spring wheat compared to last month.
To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

Farmer selling of old crop bushels ahead of the upcoming harvest has kept pressure on corn futures over the last month. Nearly ideal weather conditions for most during the month of July and to start August have only added more pressure. The corn market’s ability to close higher following a record yield estimate of 183.1 bpa by the USDA is a good sign showing corn buyers are finding value at these multi-year low levels. Any unexpected downward shift in anticipated supply or increase in demand could trigger managed funds to cover some of their extensive short positions and rally prices, however, an extended rally is unlikely before combines start rolling.

No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. Additionally, should a contra-seasonal rally occur considering the large net short managed fund position, we continue to target the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Between early June and late July Grain Market Insider made three separate sales recommendations to get early sales made for next year’s crop. Considering the seasonal weakness of the market in late summer and early fall, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

A neutral USDA report helped trigger some short covering in the corn market as futures traded higher for the first time in five sessions. The daily close posted a bullish reversal on corn charts, which could provide some additional buying strength going into tonight’s session.
The USDA lowered projected harvested acres for corn to 82.7 million acres, down approximately 700,000 from the July totals. With the reduced acres, and strong crop rating, the USDA raised yield forecasts for this year’s corn crop to 183.1 bu/a, up 2.1 bu/acre from previous estimates. Key US corn producing states of Iowa (209 bu/a), Illinois (225 bu/a), and Indiana (207 bu/a) are expected to reach record yields this harvest.
The record yield potential offset the acres lost in the supply/demand balance sheet as new crop corn carry out was lowered slightly to 2.073 billion bushels, down 23 mb from July. To reach this target, the USDA increased corn export demand, but lowered domestic use slightly. Corn stock to use ratio is at 13.9%, which is still considered heavy in the market’s view.
Managed money exited 52,000 net short positions as of August 6, to a net short of 242,545 contracts. In the past 4 weeks, funds have cut their net short position by nearly 110,000 net short contracts as prices have continued to trend lower. The pressure on prices has been increased by farmer selling and commercial selling into the corn market as producers in the US and South America are undersold in their corn position.
USDA weekly export inspections for corn were at 975,000 Mt (38.4 mb), down from last week’s totals. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 1.926 bb, up 37% from the previous year, and slightly ahead of USDA projections with only a couple weeks left in the marketing year.

Above: Since August 2, September corn has been consolidating mostly between 378 and 392. Above 392 lies potentially heavy resistance between 397 and 417, a rally above which could put prices on track toward the 430 – 440 level. Otherwise, a break below 378 could put the market at risk of trading down towards 360.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 52,551 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 242,545 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the soybean market has stair-stepped its way lower on sluggish new crop demand, good growing weather, and the prospect of a large upcoming crop, while weather forecasts remain mostly favorable to the crop, and the trade may be factoring in higher yield estimates. The USDA pegging US soybean yield at a record with a million harvested acre jump on the August WASDE broke the market even further. The funds have yet to see a reason to cover some of their extensive short positions ahead of the quickly approaching harvest.

No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to make additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop yet. First sales targets will probably be set in late fall or early winter at the earliest. Currently, our focus is on watching for opportunities to recommend buying call options. Should Nov ‘25 reach the upper 1100 range, the likelihood of an extended rally would increase, and we would recommend buying upside call options at that time in preparation for that possibility.
No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower following a bearish WASDE report and weakness in both soybean meal and oil. November soybeans reached their lowest level since January 2021 and are not far from the life of contract low. Weather is bearish as well with the majority of the Corn Belt receiving moisture and temperatures not too hot.
Today’s WASDE report came out more bearish than anticipated for soybeans with the USDA estimating the national yield at 53.2 bpa which was above the average trade guess of 52.5 bpa and above last month’s estimate of 52.0 bpa. Harvested acres were also increased by 1 million to 86.3 million acres which was well above the average trade estimates. Production was called higher at 4,589 million bushels, US stockpiles for 23/24 were unchanged, and for 24/25 they were increased to 560.0 mb from 435 mb last month. World stockpiles were increased to 134.3 mmt for 24/25 from 127.8 mmt last month.
This morning, the USDA said that 300,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations. Of the 300,000 MT total, 100,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 200,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. If China was behind the purchases, it would confirm some of the rumors that were going around.
The USDA released its weekly export inspection on Monday morning. Last week US exporters shipped 327,000 MT (12 mb), which was up slightly from last week. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 1.593 bb which is down 15% from the previous year with only a couple weeks left in the marketing year. Export inspections are on pace to hit the USDA export target.

Above: The soybean market’s break below 1000 puts it at risk of sliding further toward the 985 support level, below which psychological support may come in near 950. Should current prices hold above 985 and turn back higher, overhead resistance remains in the 1035 – 1045 area with further resistance near 1082.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 9,575 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 169,016 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed with modest losses in Chicago and Kansas City futures while posting slight gains in Minneapolis contracts. Early pressure stemmed from Paris milling wheat futures, which gapped lower, despite a poor looking French crop that could see a 25% drop in production when compared with last year. A relatively neutral report for winter wheat did not allow much upside movement, but a drop of 34 mb to 544 mb of spring wheat production lent some support to that market.
On today’s WASDE report, the USDA reduced both planted and harvested wheat acreage to 46.3 ma and 37.9 ma respectively (both were reduced by 900,000 acres). Due to the drop, the USDA also lowered their total production forecast by 26 mb to 1.98 bb. They also increased the national yield by 0.4 to 52.2 bpa.
US wheat ending stocks for 23/24 were left unchanged at 702 mb, but for 24/25 they were reduced from 856 mb to 828 mb. Globally, the 23/24 carryout was raised from 261.0 mmt to 262.4 mmt, while the 24/25 carryout was reduced from 257.2 mmt to 256.6 mmt. Other notable data includes 24/25 production being cut 2 mmt in the EU, while being raised 2.1 mmt in Ukraine and 1 mmt in Australia.
Aside from today’s report, traders also received weekly export inspections. Wheat inspections at 23.9 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 155 mb, which is up 27% from last year. Exports were kept unchanged at 825 mb on today’s report, remaining 17% higher than the previous year.
APK-Inform has reportedly raised their estimate of the 2024 Ukrainian grain harvest to 55 mmt vs 52.76 mmt previously. This is due to a projected larger harvest of wheat and corn, and they also increased the export forecast from 36.16 mmt to 38.8 mmt. Of that total, 13.4 mmt may be wheat. Finally, the Ukrainian ag ministry has said that wheat harvest has reached 20.9 mmt as of August 4.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 6,284 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 71,332 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,154 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 36,038 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The market appears to have found support just below the market near 575. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 6. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 205 contracts between July 30 – August 6, bringing their total position to a net short 25,137 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather