8-11 End of Day: Grains Position Ahead of USDA’s WASDE Report Release
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 385 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 407.75 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 450 | 3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’25 | 1011.25 | 23.75 |
| JAN ’26 | 1029.5 | 23 |
| NOV ’26 | 1055 | 14.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 515 | 0.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 535.5 | 0.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 576.5 | -0.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 519 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 537.5 | 0.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 576 | -1 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.7675 | 0.0275 |
| DEC ’25 | 5.9725 | 0.0225 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.49 | -0.015 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6403.5 | -10 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’25 | 63.24 | 0.24 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3378.3 | -84.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week on a positive note, ending the day with gains, supported by export inspections that came in above market expectations.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed higher on Monday, supported by headlines that President Trump urged China to significantly increase its soybean purchases, fueling hopes for stronger export demand.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended Monday’s session mixed, as traders positioned themselves ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report while being pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.
- To see updated U.S. weather outlook maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- The exit target for the 510 call options has been cancelled, given the significant rally that would be required to reach it.
- For the 420 puts to achieve the 43 ¾ cent target, the December ’25 contract would need to fall to roughly the 380 area.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- A close over 482 resistance vs Dec ‘26 and buy call options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- The 483 sales target has been cancelled, and an upside Plan B call buy stop has been added at 482. Resistance for the macro trend sits at 482 vs December ’26. A close above 482 would signal a potential shift to a macro uptrend, triggering a call option purchase. Remaining below this resistance keeps the broader trend sideways-to-lower, with no immediate need for call option coverage to protect the four prior sales recommendations.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market began the week with modest gains, supported by strength in the soybean market and friendly corn demand , as traders positioned ahead of Tuesday’s August WASDE report.
- The August USDA Crop Production Report, set for release Tuesday, is expected to include potential yield adjustments that could impact market direction. Analysts peg average corn yield at 184.3 bu/acre, 3.3 bu/acre above trend, with estimates ranging from 182.5 to 188.1 — setting the stage for volatility. In addition, the market will be closely watched for demand-side adjustments, as new crop ending stocks are expected to rise to 1.900 billion bushels, up from 1.660 billion. The projected increase in production is anticipated to contribute to the larger carryout.
- USDA did not announce any flash sales of corn on Monday but did release weekly export inspections. For the week ending August 7, US exporters shipped 1.492 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn, above market expectations.
- Corn export shipments out of Brazil last week were at 1.71 MMT, which was down 0.9% under last week. Corn shipments out of Brazil to date for August at 7.58 MMT, up 18% over last year as Brazil wraps up harvest of a record second corn crop.
- Still in search of a deal with China, President Trump signed an executive order on Monday afternoon to extend the tariff deadline with China until November 9. China is still absent from the U.S. corn and soybean export market going into the 2025-26 marketing year.s.
Corn Futures Slump to start August
After a quiet May–July stretch, corn futures broke support near 391 to start August. A weekly close below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360, while upside targets include an unfilled gap at 413, resistance at 420, and a second gap at 430.
Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,435 contracts between July 29- August 5, bringing their total position to a net short 173,750 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, with the November contract recovering a significant portion of the losses from the past two weeks after President Trump urged China to ‘quadruple’ its soybean purchases. Shortly after the market closed, it was announced that the U.S. would extend its pause on Chinese tariffs until November 9, providing additional time for trade negotiations.
- Export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.
- The August USDA Crop Production report will be out tomorrow and could bring yield adjustments to the soybean crop. Analysts peg average yield at 53.0 bu/acre, 0.5 bu/acre above the trendline, with estimates ranging from 52.0 to 54.0 bpa — setting the stage for volatility.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 29,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 65,930 contracts. They sold 11,661 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 54,939 contracts and 234 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,592 contracts.
Soybeans Test April Lows
Soybean futures remain locked in a broader sideways trend after failing to clear key resistance at the May high of $10.82 in mid-June. With largely favorable weather throughout much of the growing season, the market has struggled to build bullish momentum, and the path of least resistance has remained lower. Technically, a breakout above the 100-day moving average could open the door to filling the gap left over the July 4th weekend near $10.50. On the downside, initial support is seen around the $10.00 mark, with stronger technical support at the April lows near $9.80.
Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 29,619 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 63,930 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed quietly, hovering near neutral, as traders weighed multiple factors ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report, where the U.S. wheat balance sheet is expected to show a slightly bullish outlook. However, today’s higher U.S. Dollar and lower close for Matif wheat likely limited upside for U.S. futures.
- The average pre-report estimate of U.S. 25/26 all wheat production comes in at 1.925 bb, down slightly from the 1.929 bb estimated in July. When broken down by class, winter wheat production is expected to increase 4 mb, while spring wheat is expected to decrease 7 mb. Additionally, U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall 1 mb to 850 mb for 24/25, while for 25/26 the carryout is anticipated to decline by 5 mb to 885 mb.
- Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 13.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 161 mb, up 2% from last year. This is below the USDA’s projected pace; 25/26 exports are estimated up 3% from the year prior at 850 mb.
- President Trump will meet this Friday in Alaska with Russian President Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine, which will hopefully lead to a peace deal. There were also rumors that Ukraine’s President Zelensky would be in attendance, but at this time that has not been confirmed.
- According to Rusagrotrans, Russia shipped 1.78 mmt of wheat in the month of July, which is down from the 2.8 mmt exported last year. Egypt was the top purchaser at 371,000 mt, followed by Turkey at 228,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia at 128,000 mt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Sell JUL ’26 Cash
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 599.75 vs September for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- New upside sales target.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June proved short-lived, with futures retreating toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is expected just above the 500 level, which marked the lows back in May and has since acted as a solid floor. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be seen as a constructive technical signal and could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.
Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 15,445 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 80,769 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. No new active sales targets to report yet.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 9,783 contracts between July 29– August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 57,063 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. Still no new active sales targets to report yet.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, August 5th. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,982 contracts between July 29 – August 5th, bringing their total position to a net short 22,703 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
