8-1 End of Day: Ongoing Trade Concerns Weigh on Grains
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 389.5 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 410.75 | -3 |
| DEC ’26 | 450.5 | 0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’25 | 989.25 | 0 |
| JAN ’26 | 1007.75 | 0.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1045.75 | 2 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 516.75 | -6.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 537 | -5.5 |
| JUL ’26 | 575.5 | -4.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 518.75 | -7.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 538.5 | -6.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 579.5 | -5.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.7225 | -0.055 |
| DEC ’25 | 5.9675 | -0.045 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.4675 | -0.0325 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6267.25 | -107 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’25 | 66.01 | -2.19 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3374.1 | 53 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn ended the week lower, unable to gain momentum despite favorable demand news.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day under pressure, weighed down by a bearish weather forecast and ongoing concerns over demand as tariff negotiations continue.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat wrapped up the week with losses across all contracts, facing pressure from renewed tariff concerns and a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report.
- To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Selling pressure returned to the front end of the corn market to close out the week, with the September contract posting moderate losses and dragging down the broader grain complex. For the week, September corn fell 10 cents, while December corn declined 8 ¼ cents. Additional weakness in the wheat market contributed to the downward pressure, despite supportive demand news and a softer U.S. dollar index.
- The USDA announced two flash export sales on Friday morning. Sales were announced for unknown destinations buying 125,000 MT (4.9 mb) and 227,160 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.
- New crop corn export demand continues to provide underlying support, as U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global market. With today’s announced flash sales, U.S. exporters have reported 13 separate sales of old and new crop corn since July 24. Current new crop export commitments rank as the third strongest for this time of year in the past decade.
- The U.S. dollar was lower on the session after the market reacted to a disappointing Jobs report and the announcement of new tariffs. This could signal a lower trend for the U.S. dollar, which should help support corn prices.
- The extended forecast remains mostly supportive of crop development through mid-August. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly above normal, while rainfall chances range from normal to above normal across much of the Corn Belt — conditions that should continue to aid crop progress.
Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day unchanged in the front months, while deferred contracts closed slightly higher. November futures took out the previous day’s low every day this week due to bearish weather forecasts and concerns over demand. Soybean meal recovered a portion of its losses while soybean oil followed crude oil lower.
- Ongoing demand concerns are pressuring soybean prices, with current new crop export sales tracking at the weakest level in the past decade. Notably, China has been absent from new crop purchases — an unusual development, as buying typically begins in July.
- China announced another purchase of soybean meal from Argentina. The purchase was for 30,000 MT of soybean meal, which is equivalent to approximately 1.4 mb of soybeans. Soybean meal is at a lower value given the large global supply due to increased global soybean crush.
- For the week, August soybeans lost 37 cents and made a new contract low while November soybeans lost 31-3/4 cents to $9.89-1/4. August soybean meal only lost $0.30 to $267.60 while August soybean oil lost 1.77 to 54.72 cents and posted a bearish reversal.
Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- U.S. wheat posted losses across the board, alongside a lower close for Paris milling wheat. Weakness in the U.S. wheat market was in part driven by the selloff in equities. The stock market fell today after new reciprocal tariffs went into effect, and the weaker than expected jobs report also did not help the situation.
- According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is 98% complete and the crop is rated 61% good to excellent. This marks a 10% improvement from the previous report; at this time last year, the crop was only 31% rated GTE. Recent rains have boosted soil moisture levels and contributed to better overall crop conditions.
- SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt; the USDA is sitting at 22 mmt. The reason for the decline is said to be poor yield results so far – reportedly the average yields are the lowest since 2019. In addition, SovEcon decreased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.3 mmt to 83.3 mmt for similar reasons.
- The French wheat harvest pace has accelerated due to dry weather. Now said to be 89% complete, this is well above the 63% collected at this time last year, and the average of 78%. And on a bearish note, the European Union as a whole is anticipating a wheat crop that is 17 mmt bigger than last year.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
New Alert
Sell JUL ’26 Cash
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 Puts:
550 @ ~ 29c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.
2026 Crop:
- NEW ALERT – Sell a second portion of your 2026 Chicago wheat crop today. The first sale recommendation that Grain Market Insider made for the 2026 crop was at 624. A second sale here today will bring the sales average price to approximately 600 vs July ‘26 futures.
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
Active
Enter(Buy) JUL ’26 KC Puts:
540 @ ~ 26c
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Other Charts / Weather
