8-1 End of Day: Corn Prints Fresh Contract Lows Before Rallying Back
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 382 | -0.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 398.5 | -1.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 443.25 | -2 |
| Soybeans | ||
| NOV ’24 | 1016.5 | -6 |
| JAN ’25 | 1032.25 | -7.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1056 | -8.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 532 | 4.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 556.75 | 4.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 593.25 | 4.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 554.5 | 5.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 570.75 | 5 |
| JUL ’25 | 591.5 | 5.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 588.5 | 7 |
| DEC ’24 | 608 | 7 |
| SEP ’25 | 646.25 | 7 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5451.75 | -106.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| OCT ’24 | 75.55 | -1.29 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2455.8 | 6.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Carryover support from a firmer wheat market helped rally the corn market into the close after it traded down to fresh contract lows on uninspiring weekly export sales.
- Despite decent old crop export sales, November soybeans closed at their lowest level in 3½ years. This decline was driven by a favorable 2-week forecast, weakness in soybean oil (which closed down 2%), and ongoing concerns about the slow pace of new crop exports.
- All three US wheat classes closed higher on the day, driven by Minneapolis wheat. The rally was likely fueled by concerns over dryness potentially threatening the spring wheat crop and traders covering short positions in response to oversold conditions in the wheat complex.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, the 6-10 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and most recent US Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best early sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. As we move forward and consider the sales that have been recommended, we will not be looking to post any targeted areas for new sales until late fall or early winter.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 corn. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Much lower than expected export sales pressured the corn market early in the session. Both September and December corn futures printed fresh contract lows before rallying back with carryover support from the wheat market. Concerns remain in the market that a slowing export pace could lead the USDA to lower its projections.
- In today’s weekly export sales report, the USDA reported new corn sales as of July 26 totaling 6.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week totaling 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.
- Weekly ethanol production data was released Wednesday by the EIA. For the week ending July 26, average daily ethanol production hit an all-time high of 1.109 million barrels. This was up 1% from the week prior and up 5% from last year. Stocks also saw a 1% increase from the previous week, and a 5% increase from last year. Corn used for production was estimated at 110.08 mb, about 5 mb behind the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s projection of 5.45 billion bushels.
- Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.
Above: The downside breakout through 389 could suggest that prices have further downside risk towards the 362 – 360 support area. However, if prices hold and turn around, they could encounter nearby resistance between 395 and 400, with heavier resistance between 404 and 415.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2026 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the third time so far this week as favorable weather in the 2-week forecast continues to pressure ag markets lower. November soybeans made a new low for the year and posted the lowest close of the year. While soybean meal closed slightly higher today, soybean oil slid lower with pressure from lower crude oil.
- Today’s Export Sales report was mixed with the USDA reporting an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. 23/24 sales were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 20.8 mb were above the 16.3 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Germany, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
- This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This confirmed some previous rumors of China buying new crop US soybeans.
- Brazilian consultancy Datagro has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.
Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally from this level, they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Despite early session weakness, a rebounding US Dollar, and a mostly lower close for Matif wheat futures, the wheat complex closed in the green for all three classes. Some of this was perhaps short covering by managed funds as wheat corrects from being technically oversold.
- In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported a 10.5 mb increase in wheat sales for the 24/25 marketing year. Last week’s shipments were 16.7 mb, slightly above the 16.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for 24/25 have reached 305 mb, up 42% from last year.
- In the Canadian prairies, rains have been isolated and are expected to remain so through the weekend. Combined with warmer temperatures, soil moisture levels are declining at a critical time for the spring wheat crop. This may explain why Minneapolis futures led the charge higher today.
- Domestic wheat prices in China are near three-year lows. Sinograin is reportedly increasing wheat purchases for their reserves to help support prices, as recent rains have prompted farmers to sell more wheat to avoid moisture damage. Additionally, China’s wheat harvest was up 2.7% from last year, reaching 138 mmt, which is not helping the situation.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The market action in the closing days of July indicates support below the market between 530 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 530 could find further support near 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
- No Action is currently recommended for the 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted 2 years from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
