All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	394	0.75
DEC ’24	408.5	0.75
DEC ’25	451	-0.25

Soybeans
AUG ’24	1131.25	-17.75
NOV ’24	1080	-19.5
NOV ’25	1100	-12.75

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	572	1.5
DEC ’24	595.5	1
JUL ’25	630	0.5

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	577.75	0.5
DEC ’24	596.25	0.5
JUL ’25	620.5	2

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	617.5	0
DEC ’24	636.25	-0.25
SEP ’25	667	0.25

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5633.75	8.5

Crude Oil
SEP ’24	80.69	-0.83

Gold
OCT ’24	2394.2	7.2

Grain Market Highlights

While the corn market closed fractionally higher on the day, the day’s trade was mostly consolidating in nature following yesterday’s sharp selloff, as another day of steep declines in the soybean market limited any rally potential.
Soybeans continued their slide lower from Monday’s weakness with a favorable weather outlook and improved crop ratings. Additional downward pressure came from weaker soybean meal and oil. August soybeans posted fresh contract lows, while November beans posted a new low for the move lower, and its lowest close in three years.
Soybean oil led the losses in the soybean complex, as it saw just over a 4% (1.95 cent) decline in the December contract on technical selling from being overbought as traders likely booked profits from its recent sharp rally.
Following choppy two sided trade, the wheat complex ended the day mixed with all three classes closing in the lower end of their respective daily ranges. Chicago and KC contracts settled marginally higher, while Minneapolis was lower. While a rebound in Matif wheat lent support, weakness in soybeans and declining Russian export values added overhead resistance.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell DEC ’25 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

The corn market at least took a pause from the selling pressure, but today’s firmer trade was a consolidating type of trade, and disappointing in that the market failed to see some form of true price recovery after Monday’s steep decline. Ongoing strong selling in the soybean market limited rally potential in both corn and wheat during the session.
The USDA released the latest crop ratings on Monday afternoon. Corn conditions were rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and above market expectations. Key corn producing states of Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana, all saw ratings improve week over week. The corn crop is hitting the pollination stage with 24% of the crop silking, up 10% over the 5-year average.
The July 2nd Commitment of Traders report was released on Monday afternoon. Hedge funds were big sellers in the corn market going into that report, adding 58,872 new shorts to reach a net short position of 336,458 contracts. The strong selling pressure from the USDA Grain Stock and Acres report likely boosted that total. The next commitment of traders report data will be collected today and reported on Friday. It is anticipated that the funds net short position will surpass their peak net short from February.
Weather forecasts remain overall non-threatening for corn production. Precipitation remaining from Hurricane Beryl is moving through the eastern Corn Belt, providing needed rainfall in some of those areas. Temperatures are to remain above normal, but still in a range that is beneficial for most corn crop development.
The combination of a large on-farm corn supply and the potential strong harvest will likely keep pressure on the front end of the market and limit rallies. Producers will be looking to move old crop bushels to make room for the potential new crop supply this fall.

Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 58,872 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 336,538 contracts.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.

No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

Soybeans ended the day lower again today after yesterday’s sharp selloff as weather remains mostly favorable and crop conditions improve. Funds have been heavy sellers across the entire ag complex as they anticipate a large crop this fall. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower, but soybean oil was the bigger loser with losses in excess of 4% in all contracts.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined. 34% of the crop is blooming, which compares to the average of 28% and 9% are setting pods which compares to the average of 5%.
While soybean prices have been falling, crush margins have been rising as a result. Based on August futures, the value of crushed soybeans was $2.44 above the cost of cash soybeans which is one of the most profitable levels since last summer. This has incentivized processors to buy cash soybeans which is supporting the large premium for August futures over the November contract.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 11,263 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 140,926 contracts.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed marginally higher in Chicago and Kansas City futures but posted small losses in the Minneapolis contracts. Paris milling wheat futures reversed from yesterday’s lower close to post gains of 3.25 to 4.75 euros per mt which was supportive to the US market. However, another increase to the US Dollar Index today limited any upside movement in wheat, along with pressure from the sharply lower soy complex.
According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is now 63% harvested, keeping the pace still well above last year’s 43% and the average of 52%. Additionally, the spring wheat crop is rated 75% good to excellent, a 3% improvement from the previous week and the highest rating for this timeframe in five years. Furthermore, 59% of spring wheat is headed versus 66% a year ago and 60% on average.
Russian wheat export values are reportedly continuing to fall according to IKAR, and this should keep pressure on the wheat complex. Said to range from $216 to $224 per mt FOB, that would be $5 to $10 lower than last week’s values. Part of the reason for the decline is due to their wheat harvest peaking and the supply flooding their domestic market.
In South America, there is some concern about the winter wheat crops. Planting and crop development are said to be lagging in Brazil, and Rio Grande do Sul is still recovering from historic flooding. In Argentina, soil moisture levels are said to be too low, which may affect establishment of the wheat crop. Widespread frosts in the forecast are also unfavorable.
France is Europe’s biggest wheat producer, but due to wet weather their wheat production is expected to fall 15.4% this year to 29.7 mmt. This is according to their ag ministry, and if accurate, would be 14.2% below the five-year average. France’s spring weather was said to be the fourth wettest on record and planted area for soft wheat dropped 10.8% compared with 2023.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,487 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 73,974 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,031 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 43,103 contracts.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 690 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 690 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 2. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 8,537 contracts between June 26 – July 2, bringing their total position to a net short 22,455 contracts.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather