Corn is trading lower at midday after last week’s light volume holiday trade saw prices end slightly higher for the week. Over the weekend, forecasts began to show remnants of hurricane Beryl headed to the eastern Corn Belt where they will improve chances of rain.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 135,636 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 84,836 metric tons is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that the good to excellent ratings for the corn crop will improve slightly thanks to the recent favorable weather.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower today due to the improved weather forecast that is also pressuring corn. Last week, prices moved higher on low volume due to the holiday, but those gains are being given back. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
The bullish story in the soy complex has been the improving crush margins that have fueled domestic demand for processors and have also triggered the bull spreading between the August front month and the November contracts as cash soybeans are in demand.
The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.
All three classes of wheat are trading lower today with KC wheat down the hardest followed by Chicago. There has been a combination of harvest pressure, improved estimated yields, and a better Russian crop than thought a month ago.
Ukraine has reportedly harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 and was harvested over 482,200 hectares of land according to the Agriculture Ministry. The country had only harvested 172,000 mt of wheat last year at this time.
Adding to the pressure, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. Also, with SovEcon recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better-than-expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
