7-8 End of Day: Corn Slumps to New Lows as Crop Ratings Improve and Weather Stays Favorable
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 398 | -5.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 414.25 | -6.5 |
| DEC ’26 | 451.25 | -4.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’25 | 1021.25 | -10.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1017.5 | -3.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1047.75 | -2.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 547.75 | -0.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 568.5 | -1.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 605.25 | -2.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 522.5 | -5 |
| DEC ’25 | 547.25 | -4.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 593.75 | -4 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 629.75 | -7.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 649 | -8 |
| SEP ’26 | 676.5 | 1.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6271.5 | -4.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’25 | 67.13 | 0.64 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3341.6 | -29.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Selling extended Tuesday, with September corn futures closing below the key $4.00 mark at $3.98. December also posted new contract lows and a low close, pressured by improving crop conditions and bearish technical momentum.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures extended losses, with August down 34¼ cents so far this week. Continued favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt and fresh tariff threats on Japan and South Korea fueled fund selling and risk-off sentiment.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by harvest activity, a stronger U.S. dollar, and weakness in corn and soybeans.
- To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures saw additional selling pressure on Tuesday as better-than-expected crop ratings and technical selling pushed prices to new lows. September corn futures closed at 398 and under the psychological 400 level. December corn posted a new low and low close on the session.
- USDA crop ratings rose to 74% good-to-excellent, up 1 point from last week and exceeding market expectations for no change. This reinforces sentiment for strong yield potential.
- Some yield models are now projecting 2–5% above-trend yields, which would imply a record U.S. corn crop if realized.
- USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Mexico purchased 112,776 MT of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. These are routine sales and expected by the market in this window and have failed to support prices.
- Brazil’s second crop harvest reached 28%, up from last week but still well behind the five-year average. Wet weather and logistical delays continue to slow progress despite a record crop on the horizon.
Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.
Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower again with the August contract losing 34-1/4 cents just this week so far. Good weather for the bulk of the Corn Belt so far has added pressure along with additional tariffs on Japan and South Korea. Both situations have spurred funds to sell and adopt a risk-off mentality. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude higher.
- Crop ratings held steady at 66% good-to-excellent, 2 points below a year ago. Blooming progress reached 32% (vs. 31% avg), and 8% of the crop is setting pods (vs. 6% avg).
- Exporters reported a sale of 144,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, split between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.
- Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 23,023 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of just 425 contracts, but they likely hold a net short position with the action this week. Funds sold 4,908 contracts of bean oil and 21,858 contracts of meal.
Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.
Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower again today, continuing yesterday’s downward momentum. Spillover from corn and soybeans, a rising U.S. dollar, and winter wheat harvest pressure are all factors in the lower trade.
- Crop Progress: Winter wheat ratings held steady at 48% good/excellent, with 53% of the crop harvested—slightly behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat ratings fell 3 points to 50% G/E; 61% of the crop is now headed.
- SovEcon has increased their estimate of 25/26 Russian wheat exports by 2.1 mmt to 42.9 mmt. This comes not long after the Russian ag ministry temporarily removed the wheat export duty. For reference the USDA is using an estimate of 45 mmt of Russian wheat exports.
- The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is estimating Turkey’s 25/26 wheat imports will total 10.3 mmt. This is 2.75 mmt above the last USDA WASDE forecast.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.
Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.
Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
