7-8 End of Day: A Risk Off Day Leads Grain Markets to a Lower Close
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 393.25 | -17.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 407.75 | -16.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 451.25 | -7.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1149 | -17.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1099.5 | -30.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1112.75 | -16.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 570.5 | -20 |
| DEC ’24 | 594.5 | -19 |
| JUL ’25 | 629.5 | -15.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 577.25 | -21.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 595.75 | -20.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 618.5 | -18.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 617.5 | -15.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 636.5 | -14.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 666.75 | -11 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5622.5 | 1 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 81.37 | -0.89 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2387 | -34.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- A “risk-off” day dominated the grain markets, leading December corn to its lowest close since March 2021, driven by technical selling and a non-threatening weather forecast.
- The soybean complex sold off on an improved weather forecast for the eastern Corn Belt, led by November beans, which printed its lowest close since September 2021. Sharply lower soybean meal and lower soybean oil also contributed to the weakness in soybeans.
- Along with corn and soybeans, the wheat complex closed sharply lower across all three classes, with pressure coming from a relatively benign weather forecast, a swift Ukrainian wheat harvest, and sharply lower French wheat.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop. With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Strong selling pressure across the grain markets fueled by technical selling and a friendly weather forecast weighed heavily on the corn market to start the week. December corn futures lost 3.83%, closing at a new low for the move.
- Corn charts look defensive technically as prices pushed through the low established on June 28 after the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soft technical close looks to have the December corn market ready to test the key psychological 400 price.
- The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations this morning. The total sales were 135,636 mt, split with 50,800 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 84,800 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.
- According to the USDA, as of July 2, just 7% of US corn acres were experiencing drought. While this is a 1% increase from the previous week, it is well below the 67% level a year ago. With growing conditions mostly favorable for most of the Midwest, corn may be difficult to rally without a shift in weather.
- China is facing extreme weather; their summer has been excessively hot and dry in areas, with flooding and typhoons in other areas. This week there have been flood alerts in multiple provinces, and there is concern about both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers overflowing. All of this could affect corn production, among other crops, and lead to domestic food inflation.
Above: Since mid-June the corn market has been stuck in a downtrend, and the market’s pierce of 393 support suggests that it may slide further, possibly towards the next support area between 362 and 360, if 393 doesn’t hold. If this area of support holds and prices rally back, they could encounter overhead resistance around 410 – 415.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower in a day of very negative trade across the entire grain complex that was spurred by weather forecasts over the weekend showing hurricane Beryl bringing rains to the eastern Corn Belt. In November soybeans, today’s losses wiped out all of last week’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well.
- This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 10 mb of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ending July 4 which was on the lower side and brings total inspections for 23/24 to 1.537 billion bushels, down 16% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports for 23/24 at 1.700 bb.
- There have been no deliveries so far this month against the July soybean contract while domestic crush demand remains firm. Additionally, the July/August soybean spread has moved to its highs while the August/November spread has widened significantly to 50 ½ cents.
- The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.
Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed sharply lower alongside corn and soybeans. A relatively benign weather forecast for the majority of the Midwest has offered weakness to corn and beans, and without their support, it will be difficult for wheat to rally. Furthermore, continued winter wheat harvest pressure, a sharply lower close for Paris wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index today all created downward pressure.
- Weekly wheat inspections at 12.5 mb bring 24/25 total inspections to 64 mb. That is 14% above a year ago and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Additionally, they are anticipating 800 mb of wheat exports in 24/25 which would be up 11% from last year.
- According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, the country has harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 across 482,200 hectares. In contrast, last year’s harvest for the same timeframe was significantly lower, with only 172,000 metric tons harvested from 51,400 hectares.
- As reported by Reuters, Iraq has obtained 5.9 mmt of domestic wheat since their harvest started in April. In addition, according to the Iraqi grain board, the country is expected to purchase a total of 6.3 mmt by the end of harvest.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger a sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
