7-7 End of Day: Grains Start Week Lower on Trade Disappointment, Weather Pressure
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 403.5 | -16.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 420.75 | -16.25 |
| DEC ’26 | 456 | -8.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’25 | 1031.5 | -24 |
| NOV ’25 | 1020.75 | -28.5 |
| NOV ’26 | 1050.5 | -21 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 548.5 | -8.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 570.25 | -8 |
| JUL ’26 | 608 | -8.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 527.5 | -8.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 552 | -8.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 597.75 | -9 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 637.25 | -10 |
| DEC ’25 | 657 | -9.75 |
| SEP ’26 | 675 | -8.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6252 | -31.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’25 | 66.74 | 1.59 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3369.3 | -4.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures came under strong selling pressure to start the week, with December closing at a new contract low and posting double-digit losses after Sunday night’s open.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply lower after gapping down Sunday night and weakening throughout Monday’s session. Markets were disappointed by the lack of a trade announcement during President Trump’s Iowa speech.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans.
- To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Strong selling pressure in the corn markets to start the week as the December corn market posted a new contract low close on the session. Corn futures posted double-digit losses, starting from the open on Sunday night.
- Last week’s pre-holiday short covering rally faded after President Trump’s July 3 speech failed to deliver on rumored trade deal announcements, disappointing markets.
- Trump also threatened 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea by August 1 unless they open more to U.S. exports—concerning given their role as key U.S. corn buyers.
- Weekly export inspections remain strong as U.S. exporters shipped 1.491 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn for the week ending July 3. This was near the top end of expectations and total corn exports are running 30% ahead of last year.
- Weather forecasts remain friendly for corn development going into later July. Expectations are for USDA crop rating to maintain the 73% good/excellent rating on Monday’s crop condition report.
Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.
- Changes:
- None.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after gapping lower last night and continuing to fade into today’s close. Traders had anticipated a trade announcement from President Trump on Friday when he spoke in Iowa, but none was announced. Both soybean meal and oil were lower despite higher crude prices.
- The announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea added pressure to grain and equity markets. Ongoing favorable weather and crop conditions, combined with fears of large ending stocks and weaker exports, fueled bearish sentiment.
- Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections within trade estimates but towards the higher end of guesses at 14.3 million bushels for the week ending July 3. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.700 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year.
- Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production, citing better-than-expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt, which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.
Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans. Disappointment over the lack of a trade announcement from President Trump and continued favorable U.S. weather weighed on prices.
- Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 16 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 64.6 mb, up 1% from last year and on pace to meet USDA’s 825 mb export projection.
- Indonesia signed an MoU with the U.S. to purchase at least 800,000 mt of wheat in 2025 and 1 mmt annually through 2030. As the world’s second-largest wheat importer, this could support long-term demand.
- According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $225 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. SovEcon also reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled just 100,000 mt compared with 190,000 mt the previous week. In related news, the Russian ag ministry removed the wheat export tax between July 9-15, attempting to increase sales.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat plantings for 25/26 have reached 78.2% complete. This is up just 5.5% from last week, as progress has been said to be delayed by recent rains.
- The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is projecting 25/26 global grain production at a record 2.93 billion tons. Total grain stocks are estimated at 889.1 mmt, up from 869.5 mmt last year. Wheat stocks in particular are forecast at 321.0 mmt, which is up 11 mmt from the June estimate.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
2027 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2024 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.
- Changes:
- There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Changes:
- None.
- Changes:
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.
Other Charts / Weather
