7-5 End of Day: Higher Closes Across the Board Heading into the Weekend
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 410.5 | 5 |
| DEC ’24 | 424 | 4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 459 | 3.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1166.25 | 8.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1129.75 | 8.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1129.5 | 6.75 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 590.5 | 16.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 613.5 | 15.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 644.75 | 12.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 599 | 15.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 616 | 15 |
| JUL ’25 | 636.75 | 13 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 633.25 | 10.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 651 | 10 |
| SEP ’25 | 677.75 | 10.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5616.75 | 26.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 82.46 | -0.56 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2422.4 | 29.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- While the corn market continues to consolidate following last week’s bearish USDA report, it recovered Wednesday’s losses with help from carryover strength from the wheat market.
- With continued support from higher soybean oil and additional support from higher meal, the soybean market closed higher for fourth session in a row. It posted a bullish key reversal on both the August and November weekly charts as funds likely covered some short positions to take profits.
- Reports of declining French wheat yields likely pushed Matif wheat to its higher close which, along with a lower US Dollar, contributed to the sharp rally across the wheat complex as traders returned from the July 4th holiday. While export shipments were weak, wheat export sales for the 24/25 crop year were strong and added to today’s gains.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Today, the corn market recovered its pre-July 4th holiday losses, but the rally lost momentum as it faced resistance near Tuesday’s highs. Since last Friday’s bearish USDA report, corn futures have remained rangebound as they continue to consolidate.
- Today the USDA reported new export sales for the week ending June 27. New sales for the 23/24 season came in at 14.1 mb, with 12.3 mb reported for the 24/25 new crop season. Total shipments of 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, close to the average pace. However, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values remain slightly cheaper compared to both Argentina and Brazil.
- Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable for crops heading into next week, with additional rainfall expected in parts of the eastern Corn Belt early in the week, on top of recent precipitation. Temperatures are also predicted to stay around average, which may offer some resistance to the corn market.
Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day following the 4th of July holiday and closed higher on the week. Support today came from strength in both soybean meal and oil, but there was likely also some end of week profit taking by the funds who have a net short position. Weather has been wet overall, and some areas are dealing with flooding which could be detrimental.
- For the week, August soybeans, which are the new front month, were higher by 32 ¾ cents at 1166 ¼ and November gained 25 ¾ cents to 1129 ¾. August soybean meal was higher by $11.20 to $357.20, and August soybean oil gained 5.48 cents to 49.55 cents. Strength continued this week after last Friday’s bullish Stocks and Acreage report.
- The USDA released its export sales report today which was delayed due to the holiday which showed an increase of 8.4 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 million bushels for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Egypt, the Netherlands, and Mexico.
- There have been rumors that Indonesia and China are headed towards a trade war scenario, with Indonesia potentially placing a 200% import tariff on Chinese goods in order to protect its domestic producers. This could cause China to look elsewhere for soybean oil, potentially the US.
Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed sharply higher across the complex. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat futures and a lower close for the US Dollar Index after it fell through some moving average support. Additionally, some estimates of declining yields for the French crop are also bullish.
- According to Intercereales and Arvalis, French wheat crop yields are expected to decline by 13% year over year to 6.4 mt per hectare. This decrease is attributed to very wet weather; initial rains caused planting delays, and additional rains during the growing season led to issues with weeds and disease. If accurate, this yield decline would be about 11% below the average and the lowest since 2016.
- The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments of 11.3 mb last week fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb. In addition, US wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are at 254 mb, which is up 49% from a year ago.
- Since their season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 315,000 mt of grain according to their ag ministry. Of this total, 169,000 mt is wheat, a significant increase from the 9,000 mt exported during the same period last year
- According to FAO-AMIS, 24/25 global wheat stockpiles are estimated at 308.4 mmt, up from their June estimate of 306.8 mmt. Additionally, world wheat production is forecasted at 789.1 mmt which is about equal to the year prior.
- According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 85.3% of the 24/25 wheat crop has now been planted, a 4.3% increase from the previous week. The planted area was kept unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to the 5.9 million hectares planted last year.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. To take further action, our Plan A strategy is to recommend making additional sales in the 700 – 710 range. In case the market comes up short of this upside target range, our current Plan B is a downside stop at 644. As long as the Sept ’25 contract remains above 644 support, the trend appears bullish and we will continue to target 700 – 710. If the Sept ’25 contract were to close below 644, it could be a sign that the trend is changing and that 700 – 710 may no longer be an upside opportunity. Therefore, a break of support would trigger an additional sale immediately.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
