The corn market is trading mostly unchanged this morning as it tries to recover from yesterday’s losses and hold recent lows while being caught between higher soybeans and lower wheat.
Today the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report. The estimate range for production in the week ending July 26, is between 1.080 and 1.090 million barrels per day, versus 1.095 million the previous week.
The corn market continues to see overhead resistance and selling on ideas of higher US supplies. In concert with these thoughts, the September/December spread has widened out to a 16-cent carry suggesting there is ample supply in the near term.
Ukraine’s corn export prices have been on the rise and are now higher than those from the US and South America, suggesting they are out of the export market.
Managed funds were active sellers in yesterday’s trade, selling an estimated 11,000 corn futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short position to 328,000 contracts.
The soybeans are recovering from yesterday’s losses and trading higher across the board this morning, led by the August contract. Both soybean meal and oil are also higher and lending support to soybeans.
Today is First Notice Day, when holders of long August futures contracts are notified of delivery. Deliveries were on the light side, lending support to the August contracts, with 44 soybean deliveries, zero meal, and 986 soybean oil.
Spot board crush margins are near season highs around 206 cents (August), implying strong domestic demand for soybeans, which is attempting to offset a lower export demand outlook.
Managed funds were active in the soybean market yesterday, selling an estimated 7,000 soybean futures contracts. This activity brought their estimated net short position in soybeans to 189,000 contracts.
The wheat complex is trading lower, though near mid-range, across all three classes as they shrug off overnight lows.
The wheat market continues to battle between talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, lower Russian supplies and rising export prices, and concerns regarding a slowing world economy with lower demand.
Managed funds remained active in the wheat market yesterday, selling an estimated 2,500 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which brought their estimated short position in Chicago wheat to an estimated 82,000 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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