December corn tested the 400 area this morning before breaking below that level at midday, potentially adding some technical weakness to futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 104,572 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The 6-10 day outlook appears cooler and wetter, which should maintain prospects for record yields in the eastern Corn Belt, offering resistance to the grain markets. The radar also showed storms this morning in parts of Iowa and Illinois.
Today’s ethanol production data showed an increase to 1,109 thousand barrels per day from 1,095 last week, up 4% from a year ago and well above the pace necessary to meet the USDA’s corn usage forecast.
The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has raised tensions in the Middle East, causing crude oil prices to surge. This rise is supporting soybean oil prices, and in turn, providing some underlying support to soybeans.
US soybeans are said to be competitive on the global market, but so far China has been largely absent in terms of US new crop purchases. However, there were recent sales to unknown destinations, which could be China, and there is anticipation that China will step up their purchases in the fall.
Tomorrow’s census crush data is anticipated to show June crush at 184.8 mb versus 174.6 mb last year. Additionally, soybean oil stocks are expected to fall about 6% from last year to 20.76 billion pounds.
French wheat production is reportedly down by 15% to 28%. This morning, Paris milling wheat futures are up slightly, but not enough to support US wheat.
Canada continues to experience dry weather in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which may affect spring wheat. This dryness could also impact North Dakota and Montana.
The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning, possibly due to anticipation that the Fed will signal an interest rate decrease in September at today’s FOMC meeting. In theory, this should support grains, but wheat does not appear to be responding currently.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to be increasing, raising optimism that they may soon eliminate their wheat import tariff.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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