Corn markets are trading higher heading into midday, with U.S. weather remaining the primary bearish influence. With little fresh news to support a rally, the market continues to react mainly to weather developments.
The latest round of trade talks with China yielded no major breakthroughs, while key agreements with Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and India remain unsigned.
Ukraine’s agricultural union is projecting a 2-million-ton decline in corn production this harvest, citing poor weather conditions and locust infestations as key factors.
Ethanol production rose to 322 million gallons last week, up from 317 million the week prior, though still down 1% year over year. The industry used 109 million bushels of corn — an average of 15.6 million bushels per day — exceeding the 15.23 million daily pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual forecast of 5.5 billion bushels.
Soybeans turned lower at midday as U.S.-China trade talks concluded without tangible progress. The entire soy complex is trading lower in response.
President Trump is expected to make further calls regarding the tariff truce, despite Chinese officials stating that an extension had already been agreed upon. Traders remain concerned that prolonged negotiations could shorten — or even eliminate — China’s typical fall buying window for U.S. soybeans.
India purchased 150,000 tons of soybean oil from China after China discounted the sale due to an oversupply of both soybean oil and meal.
Rain is expected to move across eastern Nebraska into Iowa today, followed by a cold front. However, heat is forecast to rebuild during the second week of the outlook. These weather shifts may attract renewed market attention.
Wheat futures turned mixed at midday, remaining under pressure from a weak technical outlook and ongoing demand concerns.
Recent trade agreements have largely overlooked the U.S. wheat market, and high U.S. ending stocks will be challenging to reduce without an increase in demand.
Overnight, Bangladesh initiated a purchase of 220,000 tons of U.S. wheat as a goodwill gesture linked to ongoing trade negotiations.
Since July 1, Ukraine’s wheat exports have declined 66% year over year. Meanwhile, Cargill projects Australia’s wheat crop could reach 33 million tons, surpassing the government’s estimate of 30.6 million tons.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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