7-30 End of Day: Prospects of Large Corn and Soybean Crops Keep Sellers Engaged
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 388.75 | -7.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 405 | -7.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 448 | -4 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1027.25 | -27.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1021.25 | -18.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1057.5 | -12.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 524 | -7 |
| DEC ’24 | 549 | -6.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 585.75 | -6.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 550.25 | -3.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 566.25 | -3 |
| JUL ’25 | 585.5 | -3.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 584.5 | -7 |
| DEC ’24 | 603.25 | -6.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 640.5 | -2 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5465.25 | -37.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 74.94 | -0.87 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2425.9 | 24.1 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Better than expected corn crop ratings, and a less threatening forecast kept the sellers active in the corn market today and helped press the September contract to a new contract low heading into the close.
- Although soybean’s good to excellent ratings dropped 1% point, they remain the highest ratings since 2020, keeping the prospect of a large crop high, and market sellers engaged. Soybean meal kept pace with the decline in soybeans, while bean oil settled mixed.
- Weakness in corn and soybeans also carried over to the wheat complex which settled lower across all three wheat classes, with the steady decline in Paris milling wheat futures adding to the negativity.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Triggered by better-than-expected crop ratings and improved weather forecast, sellers stayed active in the corn and grain markets on Tuesday. As prices broke going into today’s close, September corn futures posted a new contract low.
- The USDA released the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The US corn crop is rated at 68% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and 2% above expectations. Improvement was seen in the Corn Belt across all major corn producing states. These are the highest rating since 2020 and have analyst forecasting an above trendline yield potential corn crop this fall.
- Adding to the selling pressure in the corn market were improved weather forecasts. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the Corn Belt for early August. After next week, temperatures are expected to moderate, and trend below normal into the middle of the month.
- Despite already holding a large net short position in the corn market, managed funds are adding to that position, as the momentum and technical picture favor sellers in the market.
- Demand concerns still weigh heavily on the corn market. Current new crop corn export sales are paced as one of the softer starts in the last decade for this time frame. With the potential supply picture looking heavier, the key to supporting prices will be triggering some demand to work through that supply.
Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the low to mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as good weather conditions continue to encourage funds to steadily sell grains. While soybeans and its products have been steadily slipping lower, soybeans have fallen by a larger percentage which has improved processor margins. Today, soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil settled mixed with the September and October contracts higher and the December contract lower.
- Yesterday, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans falling by one point to 67%. 77% of the crop was blooming which compares to 65% last week and the 5-year average of 74%. 44% of the crop was setting pods versus 29% last week and the average of 40%. The central and eastern Corn Belt typically saw conditions improve while the western Corn Belt saw declines in ratings.
- Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 22,091 soybean contracts as of July 23 which left them net short 163,659 contracts. Since then, it is estimated that funds have sold an additional 25,500 contracts in just the past two trading days.
- Last week, a sale of 264,000 mt and another of 510,000 mt of soybeans were reported to unknown destinations for the new crop marketing year. There is a good chance that those soybeans were bought by China as the recent selloff has put US beans between an 18- and 22-dollar discount out of the Gulf when compared to FOB beans in Brazil.
Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 level in September soybeans suggests an area of support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.
Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- All three US wheat futures classes posted losses alongside corn and soybeans. After two-sided trading, September Paris milling wheat futures also closed lower for the sixth consecutive session.
- According to yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, the winter wheat harvest advanced 6% to 82% complete, which is above last year’s pace of 77% complete and the 82% five-year average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions declined 3% to 74% good to excellent. While this drop was more than expected, it remains the highest rating since 2018. Furthermore, that crop is 96% headed (in line with average) and is 1% harvested compared to a 3% average.
- Freezing conditions threaten Argentina’s main wheat-growing regions. According to the Rosario Grains Exchange, the 24/25 crop is already suffering from drought, prompting a reduction in the planted area estimate by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares. Now, temperatures of negative four degrees Celsius are expected in the northern Buenos Aires province, and the cold, dry weather has caused crop death.
- Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food Minister, Taras Vysotsky, has reported that domestic wheat consumption has dropped from 8 mmt to just over 6 mmt per year. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to produce 21 mmt of wheat in 2024, with 15 mmt designated for export.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since late May, the wheat market has been trending downward as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased, and the US winter wheat crop has surpassed expectations. At the same time, managed funds also reestablished a sizable net short position in Chicago wheat. While slow global import demand and low Russian export prices continue to exert downward pressure on prices, any increase in US demand due to smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could trigger a short-covering rally by managed funds, especially given that global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 610 – 630 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While low Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in US demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 660 – 690 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.
Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
