7-3 End of Day: Markets Close Mixed Going into the July 4th Break; Beans Higher, Corn and Wheat Lower
The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 405.5 | -2.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 419.5 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 455.75 | -0.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1157.75 | 7.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1121.5 | 8.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1122.75 | 11.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 574 | -7 |
| DEC ’24 | 598 | -6.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 632.5 | -2.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 583.5 | -8.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 601 | -7.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 623.75 | -6.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 622.75 | -8.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 641 | -8.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 667 | -12 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5591 | 22.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 82.94 | 1.03 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2388.1 | 31.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market continued to consolidate as it headed into the July 4th holiday break. The generally favorable weather forecast and declines in the wheat complex kept overhead pressure in place, limiting corn’s rally potential.
- Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day except for the November ’25 contract, which posted gains on two of the three days. Primary support came from soybean oil, which has settled higher for the last six sessions. Reports of higher SAF/biodiesel capacity and lower soybean oil stocks, despite a rise in crush, have supported the oil market.
- The wheat complex followed through on yesterday’s weakness across all three classes. Lower Matif wheat added carryover weakness, and though we are on the back half of winter wheat harvest, farmer selling continues to add overhead resistance to prices.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 to 10-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and this week’s Drought Monitor, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The June Stocks and Acreage reports gave the corn market little in the way of bullish news as both numbers came in above expectations, increasing the possibility of a carryout in excess of 2 billion bushels for the 24/25 crop year. While the market has a bearish tilt, demand has been solid, and the 2024 growing season is still young with lots of potential ahead as weather remains the dominant market mover.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. As we move through the growing season with its potential for high volatility, we are looking for higher prices and anticipate issuing two more sales recommendations before the beginning of September. Also given the tendency for the growing season to provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year we will also be watching the calendar along with price action to make additional recommendations. We will be looking to make another sales recommendation by July 8 if our upside objectives aren’t met by then.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures failed to find any traction before the 4th of July holiday, as the market stayed under pressure with weakness in the wheat market, and an overall benign weather forecast going into the end of the week.
- Weather forecasts stay friendly for crops going into the holiday. Weather models are looking for rain across portions of Illinois, Indiana into Ohio for the end of the week, with above normal overall temps. The market will be shifting its focus to August weather after the holiday.
- The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning before the market opens. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 500,000 – 900,000 mt for old crop, and up to 400,000 mt for new. With the expanded potential supply in front of the corn market, export demand will be key in the weeks ahead to cut into that projected supply picture.
- Despite the holiday, Friday’s trade could be key in setting the direction of the corn market next week. The failed attempt to push higher on Tuesday and today’s weakness leave the door open for downside pressure. A weaker trading session on Friday with an overall friendly weather forecast could set the tone for next week.
Above: Bearish stocks and acreage numbers pushed prices through the February low of 408 ¾. The next level of potential support lies near 393. Initial overhead resistance may enter the market between 420 and 430.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and non-threatening weather, the soybean market was on a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the June stocks and acreage reports. Although June 1 stocks came in above expectations, acreage came in below, leaving less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry later on. With much of the growing season ahead of us, a weather-related issue or surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalysts to push prices back near their recent highs.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. As we progress into the 2024 growing season, time is becoming limited to market the remaining 2023 old crop inventory. Although we are currently targeting a rebound to the 1275 – 1325 area versus Aug ’24 futures as our Plan A strategy, for what will likely be our final sales recommendation for the 2023 crop, we also don’t want to carry old crop inventory past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Taking this into consideration, if the market does not present the opportunity to make sales at our Plan A target, our Plan B strategy will be to issue our final sales recommendation sometime in mid-July.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the lower 1200s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we continue to target the 1260 – 1290 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow. Support has mainly come from higher soybean oil which has closed higher for 6 consecutive days at this point. Soybean meal was mixed again with lower closes in the front months and higher closes in the deferred.
- This morning, the USDA announced a flash export sale of 110,100 mt (4 MB) of soybeans to unknown destinations. This sale was split with 55,100 mt for old crop and 55,000 mt for new.
- The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for US exporters to report new sales ranging from 200,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 50,000 – 150,000 mt of new. New crop sales are off to an extremely slow start. Currently, new crop soybean sales are at 1.225 mmt, a 24-year low for this time of year.
- After the 4th of July holiday, the market will shift its focus to the August weather forecast. August weather is the key for development of the soybean crop. Weather has been mixed so far this month with necessary rains falling in the eastern Corn Belt, while other areas in the northwest have received too much rain.
Above: Support in the area of 1130 – 1125 appears to be holding. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1160 – 1165 with further resistance up towards 1185 – 1200. Otherwise, if they retreat further, support may be found near 1045.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The wheat complex continued its decline, unable to recover from yesterday’s losses, after encountering overhead resistance near the previous day’s highs. Despite harvest progress surpassing 54%, brisk farmer selling likely added to the overhead pressure. Additionally, Matif wheat closed below significant moving average support, adding carryover weakness to the US wheat markets.
- Drought conditions are reportedly spreading in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s, potentially impacting the yields of Russian spring wheat.
- The ongoing Russian wheat harvest has seen better than expected yields with minimal frost damage as reported by some Russian groups, which has been weighing on Russian export prices, and pressuring world wheat prices since the run up in May on Russian wheat production concerns.
- SovEcon has raised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For comparison, the USDA’s estimate is 83 mmt, which aligns with most private estimates hovering around 80 mmt.
- The Minneapolis Grain Exchange reported in its weekly report that spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses as of June 30 were down 5.6% to 10.954 million bushels from the same period last year. When compared to the week prior, stocks fell 76,000 bu.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and the onset of harvest. Although the market is showing signs of weakness, it is also becoming oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, and the recent breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Any remaining 2023 soft red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Chicago wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Given the weakness in the wheat market we recently employed our Plan B strategy and recommended making an additional sale as prices broke through 667 support. Moving forward, we continue to target the value of 68 cents in the July ’25 620 puts (double the original approximate cost) to exit half of the original previously recommended position, leaving the balance to continue to provide downside coverage with a net neutral cost. To take further action, our strategy is to target the 750 – 780 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: Sept ’24 Chicago wheat appears to have found support in the 555 – 560 area, and considering the oversold conditions, it could rebound toward the 595 – 605 level where psychological and technical resistance sits. A move above there could lead to a test of the 630 – 645 area, while below 555 the market may find further support between 550 and 520.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, along with US HRW harvest yields being higher than expected. During this time the market has become extremely oversold, and managed funds have begun reestablishing their short positions. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat. Any remaining 2023 hard red winter wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 KC wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 780 – 810 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: It appears that support has been found around 576. If this area holds and prices turn back higher, initial resistance is likely near 600 with heavier resistance up towards 630 – 660. Below 576, the market may find further support between 560 – 550.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 KC 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double their original approximate cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Grain Market Insider is continuing to monitor the markets and may begin considering the first sales targets after July 8.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: It appears that the rally off the 600 support area encountered resistance just below 640. Should prices continue lower, support remains between 600 and 596, with heavier support towards 542. While a close above 640 could suggest a rally back towards the 662 – 683 resistance area.
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
