The market anticipates a slight decline in the corn crop rating in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. Despite this, overall US crop conditions remain favorable, with expectations for record yields this fall. This outlook continues to limit any potential upside for grain prices.
The weather projections are somewhat in opposition, with the European model still calling for hotter and drier conditions, but the American model is more cool and wet.
The FOMC meeting is this week, but the Fed is not expected to make any changes to interest rates this time. However, it is anticipated there will be rate cuts in September.
Shifting weather forecasts have soybeans under pressure this morning. While it still looks mostly warm and dry for southwestern areas, rains are moving through the central Midwest and the extended outlook calls for more showers.
November soybeans gapped lower by a half-cent on the opening last night and have put in new lows so far this session. Lower meal and oil are not helping the situation.
There have been recent sales of US new crop soybeans to unknown destinations. This is thought to be China buying, as US beans are more competitive at these lower levels.
After a lower start this morning, wheat is trying to claw its way back. At the time of writing, both Chicago and Kansas City futures are holding just above unchanged, despite Matif wheat being in the red.
The fact that last week’s spring wheat tour found record yields will likely continue to add pressure to the market, especially for Minneapolis futures.
On a positive note, with the fall in prices, US Gulf SRW wheat FOB offers are said to be the cheapest in the world, which may stir up some additional export business.
The French wheat harvest is 41% complete, and the crop conditions are at an eight-year low of just 50% good to excellent.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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