7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Test Recent Lows
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 389.25 | -4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 411 | -3 |
| DEC ’26 | 451.25 | -2.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’25 | 981.75 | -7 |
| NOV ’25 | 1009.5 | -2 |
| NOV ’26 | 1059.5 | 0.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 529.75 | -8.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 550 | -8.75 |
| JUL ’26 | 586.75 | -8.75 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 518.5 | -7.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 539.5 | -7.25 |
| JUL ’26 | 582.5 | -7.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.775 | -0.04 |
| DEC ’25 | 6 | -0.03 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.5075 | -0.0025 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6408.75 | -14 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’25 | 69.27 | 2.56 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3357.4 | 18.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower, pressured by continued selling in the front-month September contract.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for the third straight session as August weather forecasts trend more moderate, easing supply concerns.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble.
- To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Lead by selling in the front month September contract, corn futures finished the day with moderate losses as sellers stayed in control as the market is looking for bullish news. September futures broke to new contract lows as the spread between September and December continues to widen, weighing on corn futures.
- Trade negotiators from the U.S. and China, meeting in Stockholm, agreed to extend the current “trade truce,” though no formal trade agreement has been reached. Final approval rests with President Trump. If the extension is rejected, tariffs could revert to April levels — raising uncertainty around future ag trade.
- As expected, the national corn crop rating declined 1 point to 73% good to excellent. While ratings in Southern states softened as crops near maturity, the key “I-states” (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) each improved by 1 point. This remains the second-highest crop rating for this week in the past 10 years, trailing only 2016.
- Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, estimated the second crop corn harvest in Brazil has reached 66% complete, up 11% on the week. Harvest pace has improved over the past few weeks with improved weather as Brazilian producers are harvesting a record second crop corn.
- Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as the crop moves past the pollination stages nationally.
Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as weather forecasts for August continue to trend to be more temperate. Traders are increasingly worried that the August WASDE could show higher-than-expected yields, raising the potential for a larger carryout amid continued weak export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil gained alongside a strong rally in crude oil.
- Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions improving, with 70% rated good to excellent — up 2 points from last week and above last year’s 67%. The crop is now 76% blooming and 41% setting pods.
- The 90-day tariff pause on Chinese goods is set to end on August 12, but today it was reported that US and Chinese officials would seek to extend this tariff truce. Unfortunately, it appears that a trade deal is not yet close, and China’s unwillingness to cooperate could signal that they will not be in great need of US soybeans this fall.
- Yesterday, the USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.
Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.
Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble. The Dollar hit its highest level in over a month, adding headwinds to the grain complex — wheat in particular.
- According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat harvest is 80% complete, down 1% from both last year and the five-year average. As for spring wheat, the crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Additionally, 92% of that crop is headed, and harvest is just underway at 1% complete.
- European Union 2025/26 soft wheat exports are off to a weak start, down 64% from last year at just 803,300 metric tons, compared to 2.25 mmt at the same point in 2024.
- Brazilian wheat planting is nearing completion. According to CONAB, through July 19 an estimated 96.9% of the crop has been sown, which is in line with last year. And in the region of Parana, where planting is complete, 82% of the crop is said to be in good condition.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
