7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Recover Earlier Losses to Close Higher on the Day
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 396.25 | 1.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 412.25 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 452 | -0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1054.75 | -22.75 |
| NOV ’24 | 1039.5 | -9 |
| NOV ’25 | 1069.75 | -2 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 531 | 7.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 555.25 | 6.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 592.25 | 5.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 553.5 | 8 |
| DEC ’24 | 569.25 | 7.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 588.75 | 5.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 591.5 | 3 |
| DEC ’24 | 609.5 | 2 |
| SEP ’25 | 642.5 | 1.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5503.5 | 4.5 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 75.83 | -1.33 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2400.5 | -4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- December corn held early support near 405 as positive money flowed into the corn market and traders cover short positions ahead of month end and Tuesday’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.
- Though the soybean staged a decent recovery from the day’s lows it failed to catch a bid like neighboring corn and wheat, as it was likely pressured by less threatening weather and prospects of supplies coming to market in the near term. And while soybean meal saw bull spreading action on decent demand, a court ruling rejecting EPA denials of small refinery blending waiver requests, weighed on the front end of the soybean oil market.
- After posting fresh lows in the September contracts of both Chicago and KC, the wheat complex staged a technical recovery from becoming oversold and closed higher in all three classes as traders began to square positions in preparation for the month end.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Despite a difficult start to the day, corn futures found enough buying strength to finish mostly higher on Monday. The December corn market remains in the overall sideways pattern that it has been in since early July, holding the bottom of the range at 405 today, with 420 at the top end.
- Money flow may have been the reason for the afternoon strength as funds saw support levels hold and exited short positions before the end of the month, and Tuesday afternoon’s position reporting for the Commitment of Traders report.
- Managed money funds decreased their net short position in corn on last week’s Commitment of Traders report. As of Tuesday, July 23, hedge funds exited 24,847 net short contracts to hold a net short position of 318,549 contracts, reflecting the overall bearish tone of the market.
- The soybean and corn markets saw selling pressure to start the session as weather forecasts became more crop friendly. The forecasted heat for the Midwest was shifted more to the west, and rainfall potential was increased in the forecast for the corn belt for early August.
- The USDA released weekly corn export inspections on Monday morning. Corn inspected for export as of July 25 totaled 41.7 mb and was above market expectations. Year-to-date, corn inspections total 1.837 billion bushels. This total is up 34% from last year and in line with the USDA forecast.
Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 389 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 24,847 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 318,549 contracts.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower but came back significantly from their lows earlier in the day, which saw the September contract down over 40 cents at one point before recovering. September beans also made new contract lows and posted a new contract low close. Soybean meal was bull spread with the two front months higher but deferred contracts lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months lower but deferred months higher.
- Today’s price action was very volatile, and the early pressure was likely due to weather forecasts which showed temperatures slightly lower than earlier predictions. The price action in the later part of the day could have been due to managed funds taking profits on their near record large short position ahead of month end.
- While the slide in soybean prices has been discouraging, a silver lining is that US Gulf new crop offers have become cheaper than Brazilian FOB offers by a significant amount which could cause exports to start ramping up. China has been a buyer of new crop US soybeans last week and hopefully will continue these purchases.
- Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 23. They bought back 22,091 contracts which reduced their net short position to 163,659 contracts. On Friday, funds were estimated to have sold 18,500 contracts of soybeans.
Above: The break to, and subsequent rally from, the 1008 in September soybeans suggests an area of significant support just below the market. Should prices rally further they may encounter resistance around 1082 ¼, a close above which could put them on track towards the 1130 – 1170 congestion area. If prices break lower and close below 1008, they could be at risk of trading down to 1000 and then 985.
Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 22,091 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 163,659 contracts.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed with gains today across all three classes, despite last week’s spring wheat tour in North Dakota finding record yields, a lower close for Matif wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index. Today’s rally may be attributed to a technical recovery, as both SRW and HRW contracts had made new lows and were becoming oversold again.
- Weekly wheat export inspections at 16 mb bring total inspections to 112 mb which is up 11% from last year. This week’s inspections were on the higher side of what was expected but in line with what is needed to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
- According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $220 per mt, which was up $1 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon said that last week Russian grain exports hit 1 mmt, versus 710,000 mt the previous week. Of that total, wheat accounted for 760,000 mt.
- Kazakhstan, according to Interfax, has extended their ban on wheat imports through the remainder of 2024, reportedly in an effort to stabilize the market after illegal imports caused domestic prices to decline sharply.
- Friday’s CFTC data indicated that managed funds, as of July 23, decreased their net short position in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures. The former saw a drop of just 0.9% to 75,184 contracts, while the latter was reduced by 6.9% to 40,866 contracts.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 suggests there is support below the market near 514. Should prices continue higher they may hit resistance between 555 and 580, with further resistance near 590 – 600. To the downside, a close below 514 could find support near 500 and then again in the 490 – 470 area.
Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 702 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 75,184 contracts.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: The bullish reversal on July 29 indicates support below the market between 546 and 540. Should that area hold and close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a close below 540 could find further support near 530.
Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,030 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 40,866 contracts.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area. To the upside, a close above 630 could put prices on track to test the 650 – 660 resistance area.
Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 23. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 497 contracts between July 16 – 23, bringing their total position to a net short 25,858 contracts.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
