7-26 End of Day: Sellers Come Out in Force to Press Markets Lower
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 394.5 | -11.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 410 | -10.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 452.25 | -7.5 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1077.5 | -38.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1048.5 | -31 |
| NOV ’25 | 1071.75 | -22.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 523.5 | -14.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 548.5 | -14 |
| JUL ’25 | 586.75 | -13 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 545.5 | -16 |
| DEC ’24 | 562 | -16 |
| JUL ’25 | 583.25 | -14.5 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 588.5 | -15.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 607.5 | -14.5 |
| SEP ’25 | 640.75 | -12.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5502.25 | 61 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 77.01 | -1.27 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2407 | 30.4 |
Grain Market Highlights
- The corn market came under pressure heading into the weekend as sellers focused on technical weakness, an improved weather outlook, and long range demand concerns. The most actively traded December contract closed with modest gains for the week despite the heavy selling today.
- Heavy selling in soybean oil, likely triggered as key support was broken, and a less threatening weather forecast weighed heavily on the soybean market, which pushed the August contract to fresh contract lows before closing just a ½ cent above its lowest close from last week. Solid demand for soybean meal helped keep the August and September meal contracts in the green, while the deferred contracts settled lower.
- All three wheat classes closed in the red along with neighboring corn and soybeans. Record yield expectations from the North Dakota spring wheat tour added to the negativity as the wheat market anticipates its largest crop in eight years.
- To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the 8-14 day weather hazards outlook, showing excessive heat and potential drought risk, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. In June we recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 470 – 490 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- A combination of factors brought the sellers to the corn market on Friday to end the week. Corn futures were sharply lower as the grain markets were impacted by options expiration, weather forecasts, technical selling, and longer-term demand concerns. December corn finished the week 5 ¼ cents higher despite the strong selling pressure on Friday.
- August corn options expired on Friday. The August options are tied to the September futures prices, and the market can move to areas of large open interest. Prices seemed to move to close out open August corn options at the 495 strike in the market on Friday.
- Recent weather models are staying above normal temperatures, but some of those longer-range models have moderated and increased chances of precipitation across the central and eastern Corn Belt going into August. The more friendly forecast likely triggered some weather premium leaving the market.
- Thursday, new crop corn export sales were firm according to expectations at 29.3 mb, the current total for new crop corn sales on the books is disappointing. Currently, new crop sales total 4.87 mmt, which is in line with last year, but total sales are one of the weakest totals for this time of year in the past 10 years.
- December corn was challenging key resistance at the 420 level most of the week. As that level held, sellers took control of the market to end the week. In September corn, the ease that prices broke the 400 barrier triggered technical selling in the market. Price follow-through next week will be key if this establishes a new trend in the corn market.
Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Any remaining old crop 2023 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 soybeans – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day sharply lower and gave back a large portion of the gains that they had accumulated earlier this week. The 20-day moving average has been strong resistance for November soybeans consistently since Tuesday, and today prices finally broke to the downside after failing again at the 20-day. Soybean oil dragged prices lower with the September contract losing 4.82%, and soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.
- For the week, August soybeans lost 19 ¾ cents at 1077 ½ while November soybeans gained 12 ½ cents at 1048 ½. At one point, November futures were up nearly 51 cents on the week. August soybean meal gained $16.50 for the week at $353.30 and August soybean oil lost 2.90 cents at 43.66 cents
- Weather was likely a factor in today’s move lower as forecasts which had previously shown temperatures reaching the 100s over the next week have come down to the 90s. Additionally, better chances of rain have been added to the forecast which will be crucial for pod fill heading into August.
- In soybeans, funds are estimated to have bought back 21,500 contracts over the previous 5 sessions after they reached a new record net short position previously. Funds likely took the opportunity to sell the rally from the past few days and added more back to their short position today.
Above: September soybeans appear to have found initial support just below the market around 1054. Should this area hold, and prices close above 1082 ¼, they could run toward 1130 – 1170 congestion area, though they may encounter resistance near 1100. A break below 1054 could put the market at risk of retreating toward the July low of 1030 ¼, where further support may be found.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The grain complex took a hit today, and wheat was no exception, as all three wheat categories closed with double-digit losses, mirroring declines in corn and soybeans. It appears the rally earlier in the week has lost momentum, and the wheat market, in particular, is facing pressure due to expectations of the largest US crop in eight years, which doesn’t favor significant price recovery.
- The North Dakota spring wheat tour ended with a final yield estimate of 54.5 bpa, a new record since the tour began in 1994, and compares with just 47.4 bpa last year. The USDA’s estimate is actually higher, projecting a 56 bpa yield, which would beat the 50 bpa record from 2022.
- The condition of the French wheat crop fell another 2%, leaving only 50% rated as good to excellent, the lowest rating since 2016. Currently, 41% of the crop has been harvested, significantly behind last year’s pace of 76% at this time. According to some private estimates, the French wheat crop could decline to 25-27 mmt, down from early season estimates of up to 34 mmt.
- SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 84.7 mmt. The Black Sea region continues to be warm and dry, particularly in eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia, which could affect their spring wheat crops. Additionally, there are some scattered showers forecasted, but more widespread rains are needed.
- In their weekly release, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentina’s wheat planting is now 98.5% complete, up from 95% the week prior. The planted acreage estimate remains unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to 5.9 million last year.
- The European Commission is now estimating that total grain production in the EU will fall to 271.6 mmt versus the June estimate of 274.7 mmt. Soft wheat production, in particular, is projected at 120.8 mmt for 24/25, down from 121.9 mmt previously.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After hitting upside resistance around 580, KC wheat appears to be on track to retest the 546 support from July 16. Should that area hold with a close above 580, prices could then be on track toward the 600 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Since the growing season can often yield some of the best sales opportunities, we recently made two separate sales recommendations to get some early sales on the books for next year’s crop. While we will not be targeting any specific areas to make additional sales until later in the marketing year, we will continue to monitor the market for opportunities to exit the remaining July ’25 KC 620 puts that were recommended in June. To that end, should the market continue to be weak, we are currently targeting the upper 400 range to exit half of those remaining puts.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: After encountering resistance near 630, the market reversed lower and could be on track toward the July low near 575, where it could find support. A close below 575 puts the market at risk of drifting lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
