7-25 End of Day: Grains Close Lower Across the Board to End the Week
All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’25 | 399.5 | -2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 419 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’26 | 456.75 | -1.75 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’25 | 998.75 | -5.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1021 | -3.25 |
| NOV ’26 | 1066.5 | -0.25 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 538.25 | -3.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 558.25 | -3 |
| JUL ’26 | 595 | -2.5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 526.5 | -2 |
| DEC ’25 | 547.75 | -2 |
| JUL ’26 | 591.5 | -1.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’25 | 5.8475 | -0.0075 |
| DEC ’25 | 6.06 | -0.0075 |
| SEP ’26 | 6.5275 | -0.0225 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’25 | 6428.75 | 27.25 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’25 | 65.09 | -0.94 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’25 | 3367.9 | -34.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- 🌽 Corn: The corn market ultimately ended the week lower, continuing to face pressure from favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions.
- 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the week with losses despite this morning’s export sales announcement, which included a purchase by Mexico, as the market continues to face pressure from ongoing demand concerns stemming from the absence of Chinese buying.
- 🌾 Wheat: Wheat was not exempt from today’s market trends, closing lower alongside corn and soybeans, as it faced downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar.
- To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.
- Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.
- Changes:
- Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.
- Changes:
- None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market saw selling pressure to end the week as option expiration; favorable forecasts pressured the market, despite the announced corn export sales this morning. December corn finished the week 8 ¾ cent lower.
- August corn options expired on Friday, and the market seemed pinned to the areas on larges open interest, which was the 400 September price and $420 in December.
- Weather forecasts heading into early August remain largely non-threatening for corn crop development. The latest 8–14 day outlook calls for below-normal temperatures and normal to slightly above-normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt.
- USDA announced two export flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. USDA announced a sale of 4.1 mb of corn to Mexico and 5.5 mb of corn to South Korea for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.
- Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.
- Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.
- Plan B:
- No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.
- Changes:
- None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B: No active targets.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans ended the day lower going into the weekend with the November contract closing below all major moving averages with the 200-day now acting as resistance. Although trade deals and flash sales have occurred this week, market attention remains primarily focused on weather conditions, which have thus far been favorable for the crop. Both soybean meal and oil were lower as well.
- The USDA announced an export sale for soybeans on Friday morning. Mexico stepped into the soybean export market and purchased 5.24 mb of soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year.
- Though early in the soybean export campaign, 2025-26 soybean export sales have fallen behind the early pace set last year in the 2024-25 marketing year. With competition from heavy global supplies and the absence of China from the new crop soybean export market, demand concerns will limit price rallies.
- For the week, August soybeans lost 29 cents closing at $9.98-3/4 while November soybeans lost 14-3/4 cents at $10.21. August soybean meal lost $6.20 to $267.80, but soybean oil managed to close higher by 0.67 cents to 56.49 cents. The trend with lower meal and higher soybean oil has gone on since August of 2024.
Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- The grain complex remained under pressure, and wheat was no exception. U.S. wheat futures closed lower in tandem with Paris milling wheat, while a stronger U.S. dollar provided no support. The weakness in HRS contracts is somewhat surprising, given the USDA’s estimate of 43% of spring wheat areas are now in drought, up 7% from last week, and alongside reduced yield estimates for North Dakota. It is likely that technical momentum is keeping wheat under pressure for the time being.
- The final North Dakota spring wheat yield, as evaluated by the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour, was pegged at 49 bpa. This compares with last year’s 54.5 bpa and comes after sampling 292 fields. This also falls well short of the current USDA estimate of 59 bpa.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat sowing is 95.9% complete. This is a 3.1% increase from the week before. As it wraps up, an estimated 6.7 million hectares will be planted in total, up from 6.3 million last year.
- The European Commission has updated their estimate of total EU 25/26 grain production, dropping it from 282.9 mmt in June to 278.4 mmt this month. This is largely due to expectations for a smaller corn crop. However, the soft wheat estimate did also decline from 128.2 to 127.3 mmt.
- In a report from the USDA-FAS, the US ag attaché to Canada noted that their 25/26 wheat production could face risks due to drought. Wheat conditions in key growing regions are said to be subpar. Additionally, the FAS is forecasting total Canadian wheat production at 35.15 mmt, which would be just above last year’s production of 35.0 mmt; Statistics Canada will be out with their first production estimates of the year on August 28.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.
- Changes:
- None.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:
Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.
- Changes:
- None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A:
- Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Plan B:
- Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.
- Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.
- Changes:
- None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Cash
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
Puts
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
2027
No New Action
2025 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
2026 Crop:
- Plan A: No active targets.
- Plan B:
- Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.
- Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).
- Details:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
- Changes:
- None.
- FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.
- Changes:
- Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.
Other Charts / Weather
