7-24 End of Day: Markets Hit Overhead Resistance and Close Off Their Highs
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 403.75 | 1.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 418 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’25 | 457 | 0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1111 | -6.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1064 | -11.5 |
| NOV ’25 | 1078 | -8 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 547 | 4.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 571 | 3.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 606.25 | 2.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 567.5 | 0.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 583.75 | 0.5 |
| JUL ’25 | 603 | 2 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 610.75 | -4.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 628.25 | -4.75 |
| SEP ’25 | 659 | -5.5 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5492.25 | -107 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 77.51 | 0.55 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2433.5 | 2.5 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Despite a strong start to the session and solid ethanol production numbers, the corn market settled mid-range and marginally higher after hitting overhead resistance in the area of the September and December 20-day moving averages for the second day in a row.
- After trading higher early on, sellers came out in force in the soybean market after it hit resistance at the 20-day moving average for the second consecutive day. Sharply lower soybean oil, driven by lower palm oil, weighed heavily on soybeans, while soybean meal managed to close with marginal gains.
- The wheat complex closed the day mixed with Chicago and KC in the green, while Minneapolis settled in the red. While lower outside markets limited wheat’s rally potential, Minneapolis contracts were likely pressed lower on the exceptional yield potential found on the first day of the spring wheat tour.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section
Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.
Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market experienced follow through buying early in the session as traders sought to add weather premium on the warmer and drier extended forecast, but prices once again encountered overhead resistance around the 20-day moving average and sold off into the close. Selling pressure in neighboring soybeans also likely contributed to the soft tone.
- Weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.095 million barrels per day last week, down from 1.106 mil. barrels per day the week prior but came in above expectations and the third highest for this marketing year. 109.7 million bushels of corn were used in last week’s production, which was above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.
- With Brazil’s second corn crop nearly harvested, their corn exports have begun to ramp up. According to Anec, the country’s corn exports for the month of July are expected to reach 4.56 mmt, a slight increase from last week’s projection of 4.51 mmt. That said, US export values out of the Gulf remain between $6 and $8 per mt below Brazil offers, which should help US corn sales.
- Due to the hot and dry conditions in the Black Sea region, SovEcon lowered their forecast for Russia’s corn production 8% to 13.4 mmt from 14.6 mmt in June. On a related note, it’s been reported that Ukraine’s 24/25 grain exports through July 24th are up 67% from last year to 2.78 mmt, 1.39 mmt of which is corn.
- Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures could trend well above average, with above normal moisture in the ECB to below normal moisture in the WCB. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.
Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- After higher closes on Monday and Tuesday, soybeans ended the day lower. Despite higher trade this morning, futures traded lower into the end of the day after being rebuffed at their 20-day moving average, much like yesterday. Soybean meal ended the day slightly higher, while soybean oil was pulled down by palm oil.
- The weather has been very beneficial up until this point, but forecasts are turning dry and very hot heading into August which will be crucial for pod fill. Little impact is expected this week, but the GFS model shows temperatures potentially reaching as high as 113 degrees in some parts of the Midwest.
- Despite slow US soybean exports this year, with Brazil capturing 87% of China’s soybean imports, US soybeans are becoming more competitive. Expectations are rising that China will increase its purchases of US soybeans.
- Last Friday’s CFTC report revealed that funds held a record net short position in soybeans. However, this has likely changed due to this week’s rally, as funds probably covered some of that short position with dry weather in the forecast.
Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- After a two-sided trade, Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures closed with small gains, while Minneapolis futures posted modest losses. The strength of the grain rally that started this week is fading, likely due to it being primarily a technical bounce. Additionally, Matif wheat’s inability to hold onto gains today added weakness to the US market.
- Outside markets may be influencing commodity prices. At the time of writing, the Dow is down over 400 points, the NASDAQ down over 650 points, and the S&P 500 down over 100 points. This broad-based selloff could be tied to uncertainty surrounding the US economy, especially given the recent news that President Biden has stepped out of the race.
- The first day of the US spring wheat crop tour found a yield in North Dakota of 52.5 bpa; this is higher than last year’s 48.1 bpa and the average of 42.2 bpa. In fact, this is the highest first day yield found since the tour began in 1994, and certainly added pressure on Minneapolis futures today.
- European Union soft wheat exports, according to the European Commission, have fallen 35% year over year. Since the season began on July 1, exports totaled 1.44 mmt as of July 21, versus 2.21 mmt at the same time last year. Leading importers of this wheat include Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco.
- According to their agriculture ministry, the export duty on Russian wheat has been reduced by 13.5% to 1,540.4 rubles per mt as of July 24. This is down from 1,780.5 Rubles previously. For corn and barley, the duties remain at zero.
- Chinese officials said on Wednesday that their nation had the largest grain production increase this summer in nine years. A plentiful wheat harvest is cited as the driver of the increase. Reportedly, 23 million hectares of wheat were harvested, and yields were said to be up by 2.6% year over year.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell SEP ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and prices could run toward the July highs near 636. If the market turns and closes below 575, prices could drift lower toward the 550 – 540 support area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
