• Corn futures closed lower today, pressured by favorable weather forecasts across key growing regions, which continue to reinforce expectations for a record-breaking harvest. The market also struggled to build momentum following yesterday’s trade deal announcements and overnight developments, as favorable weather continues to take precedence over potential demand drivers. The lead month September contract remains below the psychological 400 price level.
• Traders remain cautious regarding the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, as Japan is already a major buyer of U.S. corn. In 2024, Japan ranked as the second-largest customer, importing $2.7 billion worth of corn. However, with few concrete details available, it remains unclear whether the deal will spur additional demand or simply formalize existing trade flows.
• Ethanol production for the week ending July 18 slightly declined to 1.078 million barrels per day, down from 1.087 million the previous week, marking a 1.6% year-over-year decrease. The production process consumed 15.37 million bushels of corn per day, exceeding the 15.3 million bushels per day pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual target. Year-to-date corn usage for ethanol production now totals 4.827 billion bushels.
• Ethanol stocks rose to 24.44 million barrels, marking a 3.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The build in stocks suggest that no changes are expected to the USDA’s corn usage forecast in the upcoming WASDE report.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Above: From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)