7-23 End of Day: Corn and Beans Close Firm; Wheat Reverses to Close Lower
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 402.5 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 417.25 | 2.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 456.75 | -0.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1117.5 | -0.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1075.5 | 6.75 |
| NOV ’25 | 1086 | 3 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 542.75 | -5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 567.75 | -5.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 604 | -4.25 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 566.75 | -5 |
| DEC ’24 | 583.25 | -4.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 601 | -4 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 615.5 | -7.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 633 | -7.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 664.5 | -1.75 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5614.5 | 3.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 77.25 | -1.15 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2429.3 | 10.9 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Follow through strength and short covering pushed the corn market to 420 resistance in the December contract before sliding off session highs from carryover weakness from the wheat markets.
- While soybeans carried positive momentum from Monday’s trade and closed higher for the second day in a row, they closed off their highs as upward resistance was met near the 20-day moving average in the leading contracts. Bear spreading in soybean oil, and lower trade in meal also limited the rally potential for the soybean market.
- The wheat complex closed lower across all three futures markets, as lower Matif wheat futures and weakening Russian export prices continue to limit upside potential. Increased production estimates for Russian and Australian wheat crops also potentially contributed to the day’s negative performance.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell DEC ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2025 corn crop. Considering the current growing season often provides some of the best pricing opportunities for next year’s crop and given that the current heavy supply/demand picture could carry over and create upside resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, which allows the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market saw some follow-through buying strength and short covering from yesterday. Futures rallied higher for most of the session, but resistance at 420 on the December chart held, and late softness in the wheat market allowed corn futures to slide off session highs. The direction of trade on Wednesday may be key for the end of the week.
- This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of corn totaling 200,000 mt (7.9 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year. This is the second consecutive day with a posted flash sale. On Monday, Mexico bought 5.2 mb of new crop corn.
- On Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report, the USDA reported that the corn crop’s condition was 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week and below market expectations. Within the numbers, the key corn producing states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana saw crop ratings improve by 1-2% over last week. The overall strong crop rating keeps thoughts of an above average trendline yield in focus for this fall.
- Weather forecasts going into the end of July are turning less friendly for crop development in the first part of August as temperatures trend warmer than average, with normal to below normal moisture. While most of the corn crop is in good condition, in some areas, weather will still play a key role in finishing the crop into harvest.
Above: The corn market continues to consolidate as it corrects from being oversold. If prices break out above the 404 – 415 resistance area, they could run toward 425 – 430. To the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the mid-1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the upper 1100s to low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans closed higher for the second consecutive day as buying momentum continued, but prices did retreat from midday highs as they were met by resistance at the 20-day moving average. After last week’s selloff, this week’s higher prices may also be encouraging some farmer selling. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was bear spread with front months ending lower and deferred contracts higher.
- Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans staying stable at 68%, but as in corn, there were improvements in the heart of the Corn Belt while conditions slipped on the fringes. 29% of the soybean crop is setting pods which compares to 18% last week and 65% is blooming which compares to 51% last week.
- The 6–10-day forecast shows temperatures above normal while precipitation looks to be above average as well for the central and eastern Corn Belt. The extended forecast is drier for the majority of the Corn Belt which should be supportive going into pod fill.
- Yesterday’s Export Inspections report showed 12.0 mb of soybeans inspected as of July 18 which brought total inspections for 23/24 to 1.556 bb which was within trade expectations but is down 16% from the previous year. Cheaper prices may be helping US soybeans be more competitive globally.
Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.
Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- Wheat closed lower across the board after a positive start to the session, and a lower close for Matif wheat provided no support. The recent rally over the past couple of sessions may have been primarily technical in nature, indicating that fundamentals might not support significant upward price movement.
- According to the USDA, winter wheat is 76% harvested as of July 21, up from 71% a week ago. This compares with 65% last year and 72% on average. The spring wheat crop was rated 77% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but still well above the 49% rating from a year ago. Additionally, 89% of spring wheat is headed compared to 92% last year and 90% average.
- SovEcon this morning increased their estimate of Russia’s grain production by 3 mmt to 130.5 mmt, but wheat production was only increased 0.1 mmt to 84.3 mmt, just above the USDA’s 83 mmt figure. Russia also continues to be dominant on wheat exports, with their latest FOB values said to be around $218 to $200 per mt.
- Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada projected Canadian 24/25 all wheat production at 35.43 mmt, which compares with 31.95 mmt the year prior. The USDA currently estimates the Canadian crop at 35 mmt. However, the warmer and drier conditions affecting wheat growing regions of Canada may warrant reductions to those estimates down the road.
- Following a couple of weeks of good rainfall, western Australia may see higher grain production. According to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia, wheat, barley, and canola crops could be boosted by as much as 10%, reaching 18 mmt if current weather patterns continue. This new estimate compares with the previous estimate of 16.3 mmt. Wheat, in particular, is expected to see a 12.3% increase from the previous estimate, rising to 10.5 mmt.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Our most recent recommendation was to exit half of the previously recommended July ’25 Chicago 620 puts once they reached 67 cents (approximately double their original cost), to lock in gains in case the market rallies back. Moving forward, our strategy is to hold the remaining July ’25 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost to maintain downside coverage for any unsold bushels, while also targeting the 620 – 640 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.
Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
New Alert
Sell SEP ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been in a down trend as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and the US winter wheat crop exceeded expectations. During this period, managed funds reestablished their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Though declining Russian export prices continue to keep a lid on US prices, smaller crops in Europe and the Black Sea region could increase US demand, potentially triggering a short-covering rally with the fund’s newly reestablished short position, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider recommends selling another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since our last sales recommendation for the 2025 spring wheat crop, September ’25 Minneapolis wheat has rallied about 30 cents off its recent low and reached our upside target as it approaches the congestion and resistance area from early July. Considering this time of year can provide some of the best opportunities to get early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to sell another portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.
Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
