Corn is trading higher at midday but is largely unchanged over the past three weeks with prices finding support at 390 in the September contract and 403 in December. The short-term forecast has turned drier, but the extended forecast is not too concerning.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 133,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year. With prices having fallen, US corn is becoming more competitive on the global marketplace.
Brazil has halted all exports of chicken to China due to a poultry disease found on a commercial farm. If chicken production in Brazil is lowered, the country may have a larger amount of corn to export that would come out of feed demand.
Soybeans are trading sharply higher at midday as trade reacts to a drier short-term forecast as August approaches, which is a critical time for the crop. In addition, funds now hold a record large net short position and may be starting to offset a portion of that.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher today with meal leading the way up. Crush margins have improved significantly which has spurred demand as processors scoop up cheap cash soybeans.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 107 million tons in 2025 which would be up from the 97 mmt expected for 2024 according to Safras & Mercado. Production is expected to increase due to an increase in planted acreage.
All three wheat classes are trading higher today with hard red spring wheat leading the way as temperatures in spring wheat areas in the northern Plains heat up and forecasts show drier conditions. Temperatures in Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to reach the 90’s this week.
As of July 16, funds sold 6,749 contracts of Chicago wheat, increasing their net short position to 75,886 contracts. Funds also sold 3,085 contracts of KC wheat, which increased their net short position to 43,896 contracts, and sold 1,638 Minneapolis wheat contracts, bringing that position to a net short of 25,361 contracts.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report, and trade is expecting that the winter wheat crop harvest will be called 80% complete. It is expected that spring wheat conditions will be called steady to slightly lower.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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