7-19 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Close Out the Week in the Red
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 390.5 | -0.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 404.75 | -0.25 |
| DEC ’25 | 448.25 | 0 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1097.25 | -1.25 |
| NOV ’24 | 1036 | -7 |
| NOV ’25 | 1056.25 | -10 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 542.75 | 7.5 |
| DEC ’24 | 568 | 8 |
| JUL ’25 | 603.25 | 5 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 570 | 7.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 586.75 | 7.75 |
| JUL ’25 | 602.75 | 5.25 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 609.75 | 9.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 629.5 | 9.25 |
| SEP ’25 | 660.5 | 8 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5548.75 | -45.75 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 78.66 | -2.64 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2423.1 | -57.7 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Corn futures settled mixed as the market consolidated for the 9th consecutive session, and a heavy front end supply picture and soft export sales continue to limit rally potential.
- Weakness in soybean meal and oil added downward pressure to the soybean market that had seen higher prices dominate in the overnight session. Old crop contracts continue to be supported by strong demand as buyers reach for needed supplies, while new crop contracts remain under pressure from a benign weather forecast and the potential for a large crop.
- A sharp rally in Matif wheat, triggered by a drop in French wheat conditions, helped drive early gains in the wheat complex settled in the green, though well off its highs. Minneapolis contracts closed the strongest on crop concerns due to expected warm and dry conditions in the northern Plains and Canada.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, Drought Monitor, and the Seasonal Drought Outlook, courtesy of NOAA, the Weather Prediction Center, and NDMC scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- Corn futures saw mixed trade on Friday to end the week. Front end demand concerns pressured the market as prices finished fractionally lower as prices consolidated for the 9th session in a row. For the week, Dec corn posted a 10-cent loss.
- The soft tone in old crop export sales this past week, and the potentially heavy front-end supply of corn kept pressure on front month contracts. Front end corn prices may be poised for selling pressure going into August as September Basis contracts will need to be priced, and producers look to move old crop corn to make room for this fall’s harvest.
- Ethanol production has been a bright spot in recent corn demand. Weekly production remains strong and with the recent rise in oil prices, margins remain friendly. With that combination, ethanol producers have room to bid up for corn on the cash market, stockpiling for future ethanol production. Ethanol margins could be squeezed as crude oil prices dropped 3% today as the crude oil market saw long contract liquidation to end the week.
- Weather forecasts going into the end of July remain supportive for crop development. Temperatures are to remain cool with moisture forecasted for many regions of the corn belt. Weather concerns regarding the corn market are now mostly past the point of concern unless there are extremes.
Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell AUG ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybean prices faded midday and settled lower after trading higher in the overnight session, with selling pressure coming from declining meal and oil prices. December bean oil retreated after hitting overhead resistance near key moving averages just below 45.00 cents, while December meal uncovered selling just below yesterday’s high.
- The USDA reported another flash sale indicating that private exporters sold another 105,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations. The sale had little effect on the market as soybean meal quickly sold off upon the market’s reopening of the day session.
- With crush margins firm, the nearby August contract continues to see support from solid demand as buyers reach for hard to get supplies, still held by strong hands. While new crop contracts continue to see overhead resistance with a non-threatening weather outlook and the prospect of a large crop this fall.
- Later today the CFTC will release its updated Commitment of Traders report, showing fund positions as of Tuesday, July 16. With the weak price action seen this week, it is anticipated that managed funds added to their extensive net short position, potentially bringing it to about 190,000 contracts.
Above: The large gap on the continuous chart represents the roll from the August soybean contract to the September, where the 50-cent premium in the August contract relative to the September contract is no longer represented. That said, support for the September contract on a break below 1030 may come in near the 1000 psychological level with further support around 985. Overhead, a turnaround toward higher prices may encounter resistance between 1065 – 1075.
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- While wheat did close in positive territory today, all three categories finished the session well below daily highs. Early strength came from Paris milling wheat futures; front month September gained 8.75 Euros per ton, filling the chart gap from earlier in the week by a long shot. This may be tied to French wheat crop ratings, which declined 5% to 52% good to excellent with 14% of the crop harvested. This is the slowest harvest pace since 2021, and last year at this time the crop was rated much more favorably at 80% good to excellent.
- IKAR is reported to have lowered their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.5 mmt to 128 mmt. Additionally, they reduced Russian grain exports by 0.5 mmt to 55 mmt. On a related note, Ukraine’s grain harvest so far has reached 13.8 mmt, with 10.3 mmt of that being wheat.
- A warmer and drier forecast for the US northern plains, as well as parts of the Canadian prairies, is causing some concern that spring wheat yields may be affected. This helped Minneapolis futures to rally today; they closed as today’s upside leader in the wheat complex. In addition, 12% of spring wheat acres are said to be in drought as of July 16, a jump from just 7% the week prior.
- According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, planting of the 24/25 wheat crop in Argentina has advanced from 92.9% to 95% complete. The planted area estimate was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares. For reference, last year 5.9 million hectares of wheat were planted.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit Half JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 67c
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The consolidation of the Chicago wheat market shows support below the market around just above the March 523 ½ low. Should the market continue higher, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600. While a close below 523 ½ could suggest a lower trend towards 500 psychological support, with further support in the 490 – 470 area.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After finding support just below 550, KC wheat prices could continue higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. A reversal lower, and a break below 545 could find further support in the 530 area.
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell SEP ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The bullish key reversal posted on July 17 indicates that support lies just below the market around 575, and given that the market is oversold, prices could run toward the July highs near 636. Below 575, support should remain in the 550 – 540 area.
Other Charts / Weather
US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
