7-16 End of Day: Corn and Beans Succeed in a Turnaround Tuesday as Wheat Stumbles
All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time
| Corn | ||
| SEP ’24 | 395.75 | 5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 408.75 | 4.5 |
| DEC ’25 | 451 | 2.25 |
| Soybeans | ||
| AUG ’24 | 1090.5 | 12.5 |
| NOV ’24 | 1043.25 | 3.25 |
| NOV ’25 | 1069.5 | 1.5 |
| Chicago Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 530.75 | -1.75 |
| DEC ’24 | 555.5 | -1 |
| JUL ’25 | 595.5 | -3 |
| K.C. Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 550.25 | -5.25 |
| DEC ’24 | 567 | -5.25 |
| JUL ’25 | 590.25 | -6.75 |
| Mpls Wheat | ||
| SEP ’24 | 575.75 | -5 |
| DEC ’24 | 597.25 | -4 |
| SEP ’25 | 635.75 | -5.25 |
| S&P 500 | ||
| SEP ’24 | 5709 | 26 |
| Crude Oil | ||
| SEP ’24 | 79.62 | -1.22 |
| Gold | ||
| OCT ’24 | 2493.7 | 40.8 |
Grain Market Highlights
- Following Monday’s sharp losses, the corn market likely saw some short covering and positive money flow enter the market in response to strong storms that moved through the Midwest on Monday evening.
- Following choppy two sided trade, the soybean market settled higher on the day, as traders covered short positions from the recent sharp decline. Old crop August held much of its gains, with support from a strong cash market. Meanwhile, new crop contracts closed well off their respective highs.
- Led by KC wheat, all three wheat classes settled in the red for the third consecutive day. Solid spring wheat conditions, the continuing winter wheat harvest, and low export prices out of Russia, continue to keep a lid on US wheat prices and limit any rally potential.
- To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.
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Corn
Action Plan: Corn
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Corn Action Plan Summary
The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Considering we are at the time of year to get early sales made for next year’s crop, we recently issued our first sales recommendation for the 2025 corn crop. Given that the growing season has potential for high volatility and can provide some of the best pricing opportunities for the next crop year, we will also be watching the calendar along with price action. If our current Plan A upside objective in the 490 – 510 range isn’t met by our Plan B sales deadline of July 23, we will likely make another sales recommendation at that time.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:
Market Notes: Corn
- The corn market used unchanged crop ratings and a Derecho event across the corn belt to trigger some short covering and positive money flow into the corn market on Tuesday.
- The USDA released its latest round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The current corn crop was rated 68% good to excellent, unchanged from last week, and down 1% from expectations. The crop is still 11% better than last year at this time. As the strong ratings continue, there are whispers that the current yield projections are too low, with talk the national corn yield could be 183-184 bushels/acre this fall.
- A strong line of thunderstorms moved from Eastern Iowa to Central Indiana on Monday night. The storm path was deemed a Derecho event with strong winds up to 80-90 mph. The market sitting on a large short position likely covered some short in the prospects of potential damage to the corn crop that could have occurred. Any news from the storm will be a wait and see approach.
- Despite the possible wind damage, areas around that region also received additional rainfall, which helps during the key pollination window. Weather concerns other than extremes are likely past the point of impacting the corn crop nationally.
Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.
Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Soybeans
Action Plan: Soybeans
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
Active
Sell AUG ’24 Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Soybeans Action Plan Summary
Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.
- No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the low 1200s from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
- No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:
Market Notes: Soybeans
- Soybeans staged a bit of a recovery following yesterday’s steep decline, with the November contract rallying to as much as 12 cents higher, while old crop August reached 18 ½ cents higher. While the new crop contracts closed the day with small gains, August maintained its strength as the cash market continues to reach for supplies to keep pipelines full.
- The soybean crop’s good to excellent rating remained steady at 68% from last week in this week’s Crop Progress report, which remains the highest rating since 2020, and compares to last year’s 55% G/E rating. 51% of the crop is blooming versus the 5-year average of 44%, while 18% is setting pods.
- ABIOVE, a trade group representing Brazilian crushers, raised their production estimate for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop by 0.7 mmt to 153.2 mmt, in line with the USDA’s current estimate of 153 mmt. Both estimates remain well above the Conab projection of 147.34 mmt.
- Strong storms moved through the Midwest Monday night with diminishing strength as they moved south and east. While some structural damage was reported, the extent of any crop damage remains unknown. Temperatures are expected to fall back to normal to below normal through the end of the month, with rain over the next week favoring the southern half of the Midwest.
Above: TThe recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.
Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Wheat
Market Notes: Wheat
- After making an attempt to rally, wheat closed modestly lower in all three classes. This is despite a turnaround in Paris milling wheat futures that managed a slightly positive close for both September and December contracts, though still leaving yesterday’s chart gap yet to be filled. Selling pressure for US wheat was likely the result of another increase to the US Dollar, harvest pressure, good spring wheat conditions, and an export market dominated by Russia.
- According to yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, winter wheat is 71% harvested, well above last year’s 53% pace and the 62% average. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 77% good to excellent. This is well above 51% at this time last year and is also the highest rating since 2019. Furthermore, spring wheat is 76% headed versus 59% a week ago, 82% last year, and 78% on average.
- Russian wheat export values continue to be the world’s cheapest. This continues to limit upside movement for US futures prices. Egypt is tendering for wheat, and Russia was said to be the lowest offer at $226 per mt FOB. The results of that tender are expected at some point today.
- In southern Brazil, the planting and development of the winter wheat crop are behind schedule due to recent heavy rains, though drier conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Additionally, frosts and dry conditions are also a concern for the wheat crop in Argentina.
- Asian wheat importers are said to have increased their buying over the past few weeks as global wheat prices have declined. Those purchases are set to be sourced from eastern Europe, however, and the US is expected to miss out on the business. As much as 1 mmt of wheat purchases have been locked in from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria for August-September shipment.
Action Plan: Chicago Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Exit Half JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 67c
2026
No New Action
Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:
Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.
Action Plan: KC Wheat
Calls
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Cash
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
Puts
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
2026
No New Action
KC Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 680 – 710 range to recommend making additional sales.
- No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:
Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.
Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).
Action Plan: Mpls Wheat
Calls
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Cash
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
Active
Sell SEP ’25 Cash
Puts
2023
No New Action
2024
No New Action
2025
No New Action
Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary
Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.
- No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
- No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
- Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.
To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.
Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).
Other Charts / Weather
Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.
