All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Corn
SEP ’24	390.5	-11.5
DEC ’24	404.25	-10.5
DEC ’25	448.75	-4.25

Soybeans
AUG ’24	1078	-27
NOV ’24	1040	-25.25
NOV ’25	1068	-22.25

Chicago Wheat
SEP ’24	532.5	-18.25
DEC ’24	556.5	-19.25
JUL ’25	598.5	-17.75

K.C. Wheat
SEP ’24	555.5	-12.25
DEC ’24	572.25	-14.25
JUL ’25	597	-14.75

Mpls Wheat
SEP ’24	580.75	-16.75
DEC ’24	601.25	-16
SEP ’25	641	-11

S&P 500
SEP ’24	5691.5	26.75

Crude Oil
SEP ’24	80.87	-0.15

Gold
OCT ’24	2451.5	7

Grain Market Highlights

While December corn remains above key 400 support, weakness in neighboring soybeans and wheat helped press corn to double digit losses today, despite Friday’s USDA report that was friendly to prices.
Following Sunday night’s gap lower opening, the soybean market never recovered and closed sharply lower, with weakness coming from a growing supply picture and weak exports and NOPA crush data.
Follow through from bearish supply data in Friday’s USDA report coupled with falling Russian export values and sharply lower Matif wheat futures, weighed heavily on the wheat complex in today’s trade that ended with all three classes closing sharply lower.
To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, and 6-10 and 8-14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of NOAA, and the Weather Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

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Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

Cash

Sell DEC ’25 Cash

Puts

Corn Action Plan Summary

The USDA’s July WASDE report surprised the market by lowering 23/24 corn ending stocks below the low end of expectations resulting in a much lower than expected 24/25 ending stocks projection of 2.097 billion bushels. While this leaves new crop supplies at “adequate” levels, any increase in demand or drop in production could lead to short covering by the funds and higher prices.

No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Any remaining old crop 2023 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 corn – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. We recently recommended buying Dec ’24 470 and 510 calls after Dec ’24 closed below 451, for their relative value and because we are at that time of year of high volatility when markets can move swiftly. Moving forward, our current strategy is to target the value of 29 cents to exit the Dec ’24 470 calls. Exiting the 470 calls at 29 cents will allow you to lock in gains in case prices fall back and hold the remaining 510 calls at or near a net neutral cost, which should continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make further sales if the market rallies sharply. To take further action, we are targeting the 490 – 510 area to recommend making additional sales versus Dec ’24.
Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2025 corn crop. With it being the time of year to start getting early sales on the books for next year, and considering that the higher-than-expected June 1 stocks suggest an increasing supply outlook for the 2024 crop, which could create overhead resistance for 2025 prices, we suggest making a sale for the 2025 corn crop using either Dec ’25 futures or a Dec ’25 HTA contract, allowing the basis to be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

Market Notes: Corn

Corn closed with double digit losses across the board, alongside sharply lower soybeans and wheat. It appears that funds are continuing to add to short positions; as of Friday’s Commitment of Traders report they held a net short of 354,000 corn contracts, the largest since 2019. Looking at the silver lining though, so far December corn has not broken through support at 400.
The corn market continues to see a tale of two crops. Parts of the eastern corn belt look very good and have rain in the forecast over the next seven days. But in the northwestern corn belt where there has been so much flood damage, shallow roots may be an issue as that region is expected to start becoming warmer and drier.
Weekly corn inspections at 42.5 mb were in line with expectations and bring total 23/24 inspections to 1.756 bb. That is up 31% year on year and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total corn exports are projected at 2.150 bb.
According to AgRural, Brazil’s safrinha corn crop harvest is 74% complete in the central and southern regions, and according to CONAB, this crop is about 61% harvested in total, with the first corn crop at 95% complete. This harvest pressure is also said to be affecting corn prices in Brazil, causing them to drop. Furthermore, CONAB raised their estimate of the safrinha crop production to 90 mmt from 88.11 mmt in June.

Above: The negative market action on July 15 puts the bullish reversal from report day July 12 in question. If support in the area of 391 holds and prices reverse back higher, they could run toward 425 – 430, though they may encounter initial resistance around 410 – 415. On the downside, a break below 391 could suggest a further decline towards the 362 – 360 area.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 17,445 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 353,983 contracts.

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

Cash

Sell AUG ’24 Cash

Puts

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Weighed down by sluggish export demand and favorable weather, the soybean market experienced a choppy downward trajectory leading up to the USDA’s July WASDE report. While the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks more than expected, resulting in a larger-than-anticipated drop in new crop carryout projections, the 435 mb projected carryout remains a bearish factor given the current demand picture. With much of the growing season still ahead, the lower anticipated supply leaves less margin for error if growing conditions turn hot and dry. For now, a weather-related issue or a surge in demand appears to be the most likely catalyst to push prices higher.

Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 soybean crop. With no bullish surprises in last week’s WASDE report, and since the market has not provided an opportunity to make a sale at our Plan A target, we are employing our Plan B time stop strategy, considering that we try not to carry old crop bushels past mid-July due to seasonal weakness. Therefore, we are making what will be our last sales recommendation for the 2023 soybean crop at this time.
No new action is recommended for the 2024 crop. At the end of December, we recommended buying Nov ’24 1280 and 1360 calls due to the amount of uncertainty in the 2024 soybean crop and to give you confidence to make sales and protect those sales in an extended rally. Given that the market has retreated since that time, we are targeting the upper 1100s versus Nov ’24 futures to exit 1/3 of the 1280 calls to help preserve equity. Most recently we employed our Plan B strategy with the close below 1180 in Nov ’24 and recommended making additional sales due to the potential change in trend. With much of the growing season still ahead of us, should the market turn back higher, we are targeting the 1240 – 1280 range from our Plan A strategy to potentially make two additional sales recommendations.
No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

Market Notes: Soybeans

The soybean market gapped lower across the board at the onset of trading Sunday night and never looked back. Soft weekly export and NOPA crush data added to the negativity in the soybean complex, and while Friday’s WASDE report was neutral to friendly relative to expectations, it still showcased a growing supply picture, which continues to weigh on the market.
Soybean meal and oil also traded lower in sympathy with soybeans as Board Crush margins gained 13 ½ cents in the August contracts and 5 cents in the December from today’s weakness.
Today’s NOPA crush report showed June crush below expectations at 175.6 mb. Though within the range of expectations, the trade was looking for a number closer to 178 mb. Soybean oil stocks also came in at 1.622 billion pounds, below expectations of 1.669 bil. lbs. Initial reactions rallied nearby, old crop oil contracts, though new crop contracts remain weak.
Weekly soybean export inspections were below expectations with only 6 mb inspected for export, a marketing year low. They were also behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s forecast. Year to date inspections remain 16% below last year while the USDA projects a 15% decline.
Friday the Commitment of Traders report was issued, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds increased their net short soybean position by 31,679 contracts. This brought their total net short soybean position to 172,605 contracts. Since that time have likely added to that position, with it currently being an estimated net short totaling 183,000 contracts.
Friday’s WASDE report was favorable for corn but neutral for soybeans. Old crop ending stocks came in at 345 million bushels, 5 mb below last month and towards the lower end of expectations. US production for 24/25 was slightly lowered from last month’s estimate to 4.435 bb, and slightly below trade expectations. Yields remained unchanged at 52.0 bpa, while new crop ending stocks were pegged at 435 mb, relatively in line with expectations.
The soybean market may be experiencing some geopolitical pressure as well, as many believe the assassination attempt on former President Trump could have greatly increased the odds of his re-election, potentially bringing with it more strained trade relations with the world’s largest soybean importer, China.

Above: The recent break through 1125 support suggests that the market could retreat further towards the next major support area between 1050 and 1040. If prices recover to the upside, they may encounter initial overhead resistance near 1100 with further resistance up towards 1130.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 31,679 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 172,605 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Wheat closed sharply lower in all three US categories. Weakness stemmed from mostly bearish data on Friday’s WASDE report. Though exports and demand were raised, this was offset by higher carryout numbers, as well as higher production estimates for both spring and winter wheat. To add to the negativity, Matif wheat futures gapped lower today, and also closed near session lows.
Weekly wheat inspections at 19.6 mb were above expectations and bring total 24/25 inspections to 83 mb. This is up 26% from last year and inspections are running far ahead of the USDA’s projected pace; total 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, a 25 mb increase on last Friday’s report.
IKAR has reportedly increased their estimate of the Russian wheat crop by 1.2 mmt to 83.2 mmt, aligning with the USDA’s estimate. This, combined with falling export values, is bearish for the market. Russian wheat exports have reportedly decreased to $218 per mt FOB. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 600,000 mt of grain last week, with 510,000 mt of that being wheat.
Flour millers in Pakistan have reportedly gone on strike to protest new taxes. Consequently, the Pakistani government has halted all exports of flour made from imported wheat and stopped all wheat imports, according to their commerce ministry. Pakistan’s wheat harvest is expected to be 5.4% higher than last year but still 2.3 mmt below the targeted 32 mmt.

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

Exit Half JUL ’25 620 Puts ~ 67c

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since rallying nearly 200 cents from the March low to the May high, largely on fund short covering from Russian crop concerns and dryness in the southwestern Plains, prices have fallen from their peak with seasonal weakness and a quick harvest pace. Although prices remain weak, the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive in the event prices turn back higher, while the breakout above the December highs suggests there is potential for a test of the 2023 summer highs post-harvest.

No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering the recent rally in wheat, we recommended taking advantage of the elevated prices to make additional sales and buy upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 740 – 760 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 73 cents in the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of your July ‘25 620 Chicago Wheat puts at approximately 67 cents in premium minus fees and commission. Last month Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts for approximately 34 cents in premium plus commission and fees to protect the downside from further potential price erosion. At the time, July Chicago wheat had just broken through support near 706. The breaking of 706 support increased the risk of the market retreating further. Since that time July ’25 Chicago wheat has dropped over 100 cents, with the July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts having roughly doubled in value. Though prices are depressed following this market drop, plenty of time remains to market the ’25 crop, and plenty of unknowns remain that could rally prices. Grain Market Insider recommends selling half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 Chicago wheat puts to lock in gains in case prices rally back and holding the remaining puts at a net neutral cost, which will continue to protect any unsold bushels if prices erode further.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 Chicago Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: The recent break through 556 support suggests that the market could trend lower. Below the market, prices may find initial support around 520, with further support down between 490 and 470, with psychological support coming in near 500. If initial support around holds, upside resistance could be found between 555 and 580, with additional resistance between 590 and 600.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,837 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 69,137 contracts.

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

Cash

Puts

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns regarding Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have waned, and US HRW harvest yields have been higher than expected. During this time managed funds started reestablishing their short positions while the market continues to show signs of being oversold. While harvest pressure and falling Black Sea export prices continue to weigh on US prices, the funds’ short position and oversold conditions could culminate in a short covering rally on any increase in demand as world wheat ending stocks are expected to fall yet again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. Considering the recent upside breakout in KC wheat, we recommended buying upside July ’25 860 and 1020 calls (for their extended time frame) in case of a protracted rally. Our current strategy is to target 725 – 750 versus Sept ’24 to recommend further sales and to target a selling price of about 71 cents on the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. The remaining 1020 calls would then continue to protect existing sales and give you confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
No new action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. We recently recommended exiting half of the previously recommended July ’25 620 puts once they reached 60 cents (double the original approximate cost) to realize gains in case the market rallies back, while still holding the remaining 620 puts at, or near, a net neutral cost for continued downside coverage on any unsold bushels. Looking ahead, our strategy is to target the 700 – 725 range to recommend making additional sales.
No action is currently recommended for 2026 KC Wheat. We currently aren’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2026 crop that will be planted next year, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After breaking through the bottom end of its consolidation range, KC wheat may find support in the 560 – 550 area of last spring’s lows. If this area holds, prices could turn higher and encounter resistance near 600, as they move towards the 634 – 654 resistance area. Otherwise, a break below 550 could find further support in the 530 area.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,292 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 40,811 contracts.

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

Cash

Sell SEP ’25 Cash

Puts

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Since the end of May, the wheat market has been trending lower as concerns about Russia’s shrinking wheat crop have eased and US HRW harvest yields have exceeded expectations. During this period, the market has become extremely oversold, leading managed funds to reestablish their short positions in Minneapolis wheat. Although declining Black Sea export prices and slow world demand continue to depress US prices, the funds’ short positions and oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally with any increase in demand, especially as global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline again this year.

No new action is recommended for 2023 Minneapolis wheat. Any remaining 2023 spring wheat should be getting priced into market strength. Grain Market Insider won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2023 Minneapolis wheat – either Cash, Calls, or Puts, as we have moved focus onto 2024 and 2025 Crop Year Opportunities.
No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. With the recent close below the 712 support level, Grain Market Insider implemented its Plan B stop strategy, recommending additional sales for the 2024 crop due to waning upside momentum and an increased likelihood of a downward trend. Given the heightened volatility and the amount of time that remains to market this crop, we will maintain the current July ’25 KC wheat 860 and 1020 call options. Our target is a selling price of about 71 cents for the 860 calls to achieve a net neutral cost on the remaining 1020 calls. These 1020 calls will continue to protect existing sales and provide confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.
Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your anticipated 2025 spring wheat production. Since rallying in late June, the market has retraced back toward its lows, and has broken the 644 support level. The breaking of 644 support suggests that our Plan A upside targets are now less likely to be achieved, and prices could trend lower. Considering this and that it is the time of year to begin getting early sales on the books for next year, Grain Market Insider is implementing its Plan B Stop strategy and recommends selling a portion of your 2025 spring wheat crop using either Sept ’25 futures or a Sept ’25 HTA contract, so that basis can be set at a more advantageous time later on.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: The break below 596 support suggests that prices could retreat further towards the 550 – 540 support area. While a rally back above 600 could encounter resistance near 610 with heavier resistance near 636.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 9. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,268 contracts between July 3 – 9, bringing their total position to a net short 23,723 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Grain Market Highlights

Corn

Action Plan: Corn

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Corn Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Corn

Soybeans

Action Plan: Soybeans

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

Market Notes: Soybeans

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

Action Plan: Chicago Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: KC Wheat

Calls

2024

2025

2026

Cash

2024

2025

2026

Puts

2024

2025

2026

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

Action Plan: Mpls Wheat

Calls

2023

2024

2025

Cash

2023

2024

2025

Puts

2023

2024

2025

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

Other Charts / Weather